The role of smoking intentions in predicting future smoking among youth: findings from Monitoring the Future data

Abstract

Aims To demonstrate that intentions predict long-term future levels of smoking, irrespective of level of past smoking experience. A growing body of research suggests that intentions about future smoking might play an important role in addition to the influence of past smoking experience on the likelihood of smoking in future. Design Using logistic regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between baseline smoking experience and a firm intention 'not to be smoking cigarettes 5 years from now' with four outcome measures of smoking at followup: 30-day smoking at a 3/4-and 5/6-year follow-up and current established smoking (self-described regular smokers or former smokers who had smoked in the past 30 days) at a 3/4-and 5/6-year follow-up. Participants US nationally representative samples of 12th graders who responded to the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey from the years 1976 to 1993, inclusive. For these panels, we linked stage of smoking and intentions at 12th grade to follow-up measures of smoking collected at 3/4 years after baseline and 5/6 years after baseline. Findings Analysis of 3/4-year follow-up data (weighted n = 4544) and 5/6-year follow-up data (weighted n = 3885) for both definitions of smoking outcome indicated that there was a dose-response relationship between levels of baseline smoking experience and the likelihood of future smoking. In addition, independent of baseline smoking experience, there was a statistically significant protective effect for a firm intention not to smoke in five year's time on future smoking behavior. Conclusions The findings suggest that evaluative studies of tobacco control policies and programs might usefully employ smoking uptake categories that incorporate smoking intentions as early indicators of outcome.

A systematic review of secondhand tobacco smoke exposure and smoking behaviors: Smoking status, susceptibility, initiation, dependence, and cessation

“…In the case of smoking status, smokers are more likely than nonsmokers to be exposed to SHS (particularly in the home and work environments), and SHSe is predictive of the future status of being a smoker (Glover et al, 2011;Homish et al, 2011;Hopenhayn et al, 2013). The 'smoker' status has much to do with the intentions surrounding, identification with, and exposure to smoking behavior Wakefield et al, 2004;Zhang et al, 2000). Hence, it is not surprising that SHSe is associated with smoking behaviors by virtue of the fact that smoking is often synonymous with the production of SHS.…”

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Smoking Intentions among Non-smoking and Smoking Adolescents in Kota Tinggi, Johor, Malaysia

“…In some cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, it had been proved as a valid and reliable predictor of actual behavior later in life, and this includes the smoking habit or smoking cessation (Conrad et al, 1992;Eckhardt et al, 1994;Engel et al, 1999;Wakefield et al, 2004;Olds et al, 2005). The validity of this concept has led researchers to conduct further studies to identify the factors associated with smoking intent and intention to quit smoking.…”

The Impact of Retail Cigarette Marketing Practices on Youth Smoking Uptake

“…22 Community boundaries were defined as the area from which each MTF school drew at least 80% of its student population. Community data The uptake measure, which is described in detail elsewhere, 6 has been validated to show that current smoking status and intentions to smoke are reliable predictors of future smoking. Briefly, this measure includes stages that identify the process by which adolescents begin smoking.…”