The role of solar forcing upon climate change

Geel, B. van; Raspopov, O. M.; Renssen, H.; Plicht, van der Johannes; Dergachev, V. A.; Meijer, H. A. J.

doi:10.1016/s0277-3791(98)00088-2

Cited by 265 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…There appears to be an increasing amount of evidence for solar forcing of climate change and associated additional warming by feedback (Bond et al, 2001;Hu et al, 2003;Maasch et al, 2005;Mauquoy et al, 2002;van Geel et al, 1999, 2004, Versteegh, 2005Xiao et al, 2006). We emphasize that the apparently large sensitivity of the climate system to small changes in solar activity confirms the importance of amplifying feedback processes in the climate system (Boni et al, 2006;Murphy et al, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Jager

Duhau

Geel

2010

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues.Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. b s t r a c tThis investigation is a follow-up of a paper in which we showed that both major magnetic components of the solar dynamo, viz. the toroidal and the poloidal ones, are correlated with average terrestrial surface temperatures. Here, we quantify, improve and specify that result and search for their causes. We studied seven recent temperature files. They were smoothed in order to eliminate the Schwabe-type (11 years) variations. While the total temperature gradient over the period of investigation (1610-1970) is 0.087 1C/century; a gradient of 0.077 1C/century is correlated with the equatorial (toroidal) magnetic field component. Half of it is explained by the increase of the Total Solar Irradiance over the period of investigation, while the other half is due to feedback by evaporated water vapour. A yet unexplained gradient of À 0.040 1C/century is correlated with the polar (poloidal) magnetic field. The residual temperature increase over that period, not correlated with solar variability, is 0.051 1C/century. It is ascribed to climatologic forcings and internal modes of variation.We used these results to study present terrestrial surface warming. By subtracting the above-mentioned components from the observed temperatures we found a residual excess of 0.311 in 1999, this being the triangularly weighted residual over the period 1990-2008. We show that solar forcing of the ground temperature associated with significant feedback is a regularly occurring feature, by describing some well observed events during the Holocene.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Jager

Duhau

Geel

2010

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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“…van Geel et al, 1999;Crowley, 2000;Bond et al, 2001). At regional scales, patterns of natural internal climate variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to vary over decadal to centennial time-scales (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic Basin, near the Alboran Basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to fluvial-eolian oscillations, changes in redox conditions and paleocurrent intensity. Multivariate analyses allowed us to characterize three main groups of geochemical and mineralogical proxies determining the sedimentary record of this region. These three statistical groups were applied to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions at high resolution during the Late Holocene. An increase in riverine input (fluvial-derived elements -Rb/Al, Ba/Al, REE/Al, Si/Al, Ti/Al, Mg/Al and K/Al ratios), and a decrease in Saharan eolian input (Zr/Al ratio) depict the Roman Humid Period and the Little Ice Age, while drier environmental conditions are recognized during the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, faster bottom currents and more energetic hydrodynamic conditions for the former periods are evidenced by enhanced sortable silt (10-63 µm) and quartz content, and by better oxygenated bottom waters -as reflected by decreasing redox-sensitive elements (V/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and Zn/Al ratios). In contrast, opposite paleoceanographic conditions are distinguished during the latter periods, i.e. the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Although no Ba excess was registered, other paleoproductivity indicators Correspondence to: V. Nieto-Moreno (vanesanieto@ugr.es) (total organic carbon content, Br/Al ratio, and organometallic ligands such as U and Cu) display the highest values during the Roman Humid Period, and together with increasing preservation of organic matter, this period exhibits by far the most intense productivity of the last 4000 yr. Fluctuations in detrital input into the basin as the main process managing deposition, reflected by the first eigenvector defined by the Principal Component Analyses, point to solar irradiance and the North Atlantic Oscillation variability as the main driving mechanisms behind natural climate variability over decadal to centennial time-scales for the last 4000 yr.

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“…Various hypotheses have been suggested to explain these rapid temperature shifts, including internal oscillations in the climate system and external forcing, possibly from the Sun 7 . But whereas pronounced solar cycles of ,87 and ,210 years are well known [8][9][10][11][12] , a ,1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected 8 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model

Braun

Christl

Rahmstorf

et al. 2005

Nature

246

192

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Many palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so-called DansgaardOeschger events, with a quasi-periodicity of ,1,470 years for the late glacial period [1][2][3][4][5][6] . Various hypotheses have been suggested to explain these rapid temperature shifts, including internal oscillations in the climate system and external forcing, possibly from the Sun 7 . But whereas pronounced solar cycles of ,87 and ,210 years are well known [8][9][10][11][12] , a ,1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected 8 . Here we show that an intermediate-complexity climate model with glacial climate conditions simulates rapid climate shifts similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events with a spacing of 1,470 years when forced by periodic freshwater input into the North Atlantic Ocean in cycles of ,87 and ,210 years. We attribute the robust 1,470-year response time to the superposition of the two shorter cycles, together with strongly nonlinear dynamics and the long characteristic timescale of the thermohaline circulation. For Holocene conditions, similar events do not occur. We conclude that the glacial 1,470-year climate cycles could have been triggered by solar forcing despite the absence of a 1,470-year solar cycle.The onset of successive Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, as documented in Greenland ice-cores 1,2 for example, is typically spaced by ,1,470 years or integer multiples thereof 13,14 . Because deviations from this cyclicity are small, often less than 100-200 years 15 , external forcing (solar or orbital) was suggested to trigger DO events 6,15,16 . However, neither orbital nor solar forcing shows a 1,470-year frequency. Spectral analysis performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides [8][9][10][11] , which are commonly used as proxies for solar variability 12 , indicates the possible existence of pronounced and stable 10,11 centennial-scale solar cycles (the DeVries-Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods near 210 and 87 years 10,11 ) but does not reveal a 1,470-year cycle 8 . However, the DeVries and Gleissberg cycles are close to prime factors of 1,470 years (1,470/7 ¼ 210; 1,470/17 < 86.5). The superposition of two such frequencies could result in variability that repeats with a 1,470-year period.Here we propose that these two solar frequencies could have synchronized the glacial 1,470-year climate cycle. Support for the idea that a multi-century climate cycle might be linked with centuryscale solar variability comes from Holocene data: a multi-centennial drift-ice cycle in the North Atlantic was reported 17 to coincide with "rapid (100-to 200-year), conspicuously large-amplitude variations" in the production rates of the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be. To test our hypothesis, we force the coupled climate system model CLIMBER-2 (version 3) with the two solar frequencies. Earlier simulations with this model showed that, when forced by periodic and/or stochastic variations in the freshwater flux into the northern Atlantic, abrupt glacial warming events are triggere...

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The role of solar forcing upon climate change

Cited by 265 publications

References 47 publications

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach

Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model

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