The Role of Statistical Methods and Tools for Weather Forecasting and Modeling

Abstract

The need to understand the role of statistical methods for the forecasting of climatological parameters cannot be trivialized. This study gives an in depth review on the different variations of the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test and how they can be applied, regression techniques (Simple and Multiple), the Angstrom-Prescott model for solar radiation, etc. The study then goes ahead to apply some of them with data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), and applying tools like the python programming language and Wolfram Mathematica. Results show that the maximum ambient temperature for Calabar is increasing (Z = 2.52) significantly after the calculated p-value <0.05 (significant level). The seasonal M-K test was also applied for the dry and wet seasons and both were found to be increasing (Z = 3.23 and Z = 4.04 respectively) after their calculated p-values <0.05. The relationship between refractivity and other meteorological parameters relating to it was discerned using partial differential equations giving the gradient of each with refractivity; this was compared with results from the correlation matrix to show that the water vapor contents of the atmosphere contributes significantly to the variation of refractivity. Multiple linear regression has also been adopted to give an accurate model for the prediction of refractivity in the region after the residual error between the calculated refractivity and predicted refractivity was minimal.

Solar energy: A panacea for the electricity generation crisis in Nigeria

“…The global total monthly radiation was collected from 2005-2016, and the average was found for each month and presented for all state capitals of the different regions. From mere observations, it can be concluded that the Northern states evidently have higher values of global solar radiation, which is in agreement with facts as the Northern States are hotter, and the Southern States generally have lower temperature values, mainly because of their closeness to the Atlantic Ocean [6,7,8,9]. After using the total monthly global solar radiation with Eq.…”

“…Adopting these alternative energy resources can go as far as creating jobs, improving energy access and security [5], and reducing the emission of fossil fuels, which depletes the ozone layer and contributes to the formation of GHGs; this ramps up the average global surface temperature. Studies by Agbo et al [6,7], Agbo and Ekpo [8], Agbo [9], and Alhaji et al [10] have shown that the ambient temperature for their respective study locations in Nigeria is steadily increasing. This shows the importance of adopting clean, renewable energy.…”

“…Variations of meteorological parameters affect the amount of energy gotten from the sun. According to studies from Agbo et al [6,7], Agbo and Ekpo [8], Agbo [9] Alhaji et al [10], and Akinbami [11], climate change is one of the effects of these variations with its issue resulting from diverse anthropogenic activities. With the recent increase in cellular networks' deployment across the world and the most recent introduction of the 5th Generation (5G) technology, two main problems have been noticed; the cost of energy for running these mobile networks and its effects on the environment.…”

Meteorological Analysis of the Relationship between Climatic Parameters: Understanding the Dynamics of the Troposphere

“…Given the value of n, we can obtain refractivity from equation (2) above. However, refractivity, which is measured with refractometers, can be calculated by the adoption of meteorological parameters including, the AP (P) in hPa, VP (e) in hPa, and the Absolute Temperature (Tk) in Kelvin, with the equation recommended by the ITU and applied in various studies (Kaissasou et al 2015;Ogunsua et al 2018;Agbo 2021;Adediji et al 2011;Faladun and Okeke, 2013;Ayantunji et al 2011)  …”

“…The number of data values in the the group is represented by . We can now obtain the test statistic Z, using the values of ( ) VAR S and S; (Agbo 2021) 1 ; 0 ( ) 0; 0…”