Objective
To describe the natural history of CIN-2 in a prospective study of young women and to examine the behavioral and biologic factors associated with regression and progression.
Methods
Women aged 13 to 24 years referred for abnormal cytology and were found to have CIN-2 on histology were followed at 4-month intervals. Risks for regression defined as 3 consecutive negative cytology and histology visits and progression to CIN-3 were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models.
Findings
Ninety-five women with a mean age of 20.4 years (± 2.3) were entered into the analysis. Thirty-eight percent cleared by year 1, 63% by year 2 and 68% by year 3. Multivariable analysis found that recent N. gonorrhoeae infection (H.R. = 25.27 [95% C.I. 3.11, 205.42]) and medroxyprogesterone acetate use (per month) (H.R. = 1.02 [95% C.I. 1.003, 1.04]) were associated with regression. Factors associated with non-regression included combined hormonal contraception use (per month) (H.R. = 0.85 [95% C.I. 0.75, 0.97]) and persistence of HPV of any type (H.R. = 0.40 [95% C.I. 0.22, 0.72]). Fifteen percent of women showed progression by year 3. HPV 16/18 persistence (H.R. = 25.27 [95% C.I.2.65, 241.2, p = 0.005]) and HPV 16/18 status at last visit (H.R. = 7.25 [95% C.I. 1.07, 49.36); p < 0.05]) was associated with progression Because of the small sample size, other co-variates were not examined.
Conclusion
The high regression rate of CIN-2 supports clinical observation of this lesion in young women.