The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier

Zhao, Yingying; Jin, Yishuai; Capotondi, Antonietta; Li, Jianping; Sun, Daoxun

doi:10.1029/2022gl101853

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Properly designed coupled model sensitivity experiments, where SSTs are prescribed in certain regions could be used to isolate the contribution of the different regional sources of wind anomalies. Since these experiments may be affected by model biases and delicate to conduct 158 , they should be complemented by analyses of multi-variate empirical models 159 , which are trained on observations and allow a cleaner decoupling of feedbacks among different variables and regions [160][161][162] . In addition, simple ocean models that capture Rossby wave dynamics 18,163 can help assess the role of different aspects of the winds, including location and spectral characteristics, in reproducing key features of TPDV.…”

Section: Summary and Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Capotondi

2024

Preprint

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Naturally-occurring variability in the Tropical Pacific at timescales in the 7-70 years range, defined here as Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), modulates ENSO characteristics and its global impacts, and is linked to the rate of change of the globally-averaged surface temperature. Thus, understanding TPDV is integral to robustly separate the forced climate response from internally-generated climate variability and thereby produce reliable projections of the tropical Pacific and global climate. Several oceanic mechanisms have been proposed to explain TPDV, including off-equatorial Rossby wave activity, propagation of spiciness anomalies from the subtropical to the tropical regions, and changes in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulations, known as “Subtropical Cells”. However, uncertainties remain on the relative importance of these oceanic mechanisms. Another critical source of uncertainty concerns the nature and origin of the atmospheric forcing of those oceanic processes. Anomalous wind forcing could arise as a response to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, be induced by Pacific extra-tropical influences or result from tropical basin interactions. This presentation critically reviews the nature and relative importance of the oceanic and atmospheric processes driving TPDV. Although uncertain, the tropical oceanic adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant source of variability at decadal timescales. A deeper understanding of the origin of TPDV-related winds is a key priority for future research.

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Section: Summary and Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Capotondi

2024

Preprint

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“…To further clarify the role played by SSS in ENSO development, we compare the optimal initial conditions that maximize the growth of SSTA in the Niño3 and Niño4 regions under Full LIM and No SSS LIM (Zhao, Jin, et al., 2023).…”

Section: The Role Played By Sss In Modulating Enso Spbmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier

Pang,

Jin,

Zhao

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Previous studies suggested that tropical sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) through mixing and entrainment and thus it may be a signal for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. This paper explores the influence of SSS on ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB) using an empirical dynamic model ‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By coupling and decoupling SSS in the LIM, we find that tropical Pacific SSS plays a significant role in weakening both Central‐Pacific and Eastern‐Pacific ENSO SPB. The evolution of optimal initial structure also shows the importance of SSS dynamics in ENSO. We found an SSS mode that plays the dominant role in SSS impacting ENSO prediction. By the analysis of lead‐lag correlation, we find that this mode can induce easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Niña‐like SST pattern in the winter through zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks.

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“…Notably, the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) is expected to strengthen in a warming climate and thus become a more influential precursor of ENSO, enhancing its predictability 12 , 28 . The inter-basin interactions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as sub-seasonal variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, can also affect the ENSO dynamics 29 , 30 and its predictability 31 – 34 . As such, the change of ENSO predictability under global warming remains unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

Chen,

Jin,

Liu

et al. 2024

Nat Commun

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific, whose nature nevertheless may change significantly in a warming climate. Here, we show that the predictability of ENSO may decrease in the future. Across the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we find a robust decrease of the persistence and predictability for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO under global warming, notably in passing through the boreal spring. The strength of spring predictability barrier will be increased by 25% in the future. The reduced predictability of CP ENSO is caused by the faster warming over surface ocean in tropical Pacific and, in turn, the enhanced thermodynamical damping rate on CP ENSO in response to global warming. In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific ENSO will not change. Our results suggest that future greenhouse warming will make the prediction of CP ENSO more challenging, with far-reaching implications on future climate predictions.

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The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier

Abstract: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant air-sea coupled mode in the tropical Pacific on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. ENSO drives atmospheric teleconnections that significantly impact the climate, weather, and ecosystems throughout the world (e.g.,

Cited by 10 publications

References 77 publications

Mechanisms of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Mechanisms of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier

Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

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