The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar

Abstract

We examine the impact of rainfall variability and cyclones on schooling and work among a cohort of teens and young adults in Madagascar. We estimate a bivariate probit model using a panel survey conducted in 2004 and 2011 in this poor island nation, which is frequently affected by extreme weather events. Our results show that negative rainfall deviations and cyclones reduce the probability of attending school and encourage young men and, to a greater extent, women to enter the work force, and they reduce their French and math test scores. Less wealthy households are most likely to experience this school-to-work transition in the face of rainfall shocks. The finding is consistent with poorer households having less savings and more limited access to credit and insurance, which reduces their ability to cope with rainfall shortages. We also find that there are both contemporaneous and lagged effects of the weather shocks, and that they are of a similar magnitude. Our findings are robust to the use of a linear probability model, as well as a wide range of definitions of rainfall variations.

Household Shocks and Adolescent Well-Being in Peru

“…Shocks such as droughts and floods may adversely affect children’s learning and schooling progress if households respond by redirecting resources for schooling toward more immediate household needs (Berhane et al, 2016 ; Shah & Steinberg, 2017 ). Similarly, children might stay home from school or spend less time studying in order to help their household with income generation activities in response to shocks (Marchetta et al, 2019 ). Further, adverse climatic conditions experienced in early life may impact child health and nutrition during critical periods of cognitive development, thereby affecting schooling outcomes in adolescence (Randell & Gray, 2019 ).…”

“…Indeed, a substantial body of work has emerged linking environmental conditions to children’s well-being and educational outcomes (Gitter & Barham, 2007 ; Marchetta et al, 2019 ; Nguyen & Nguyen, 2020 ; Randell & Gray, 2016 ; Shah & Steinberg, 2017 ; Zamand & Hyder, 2016 ). For example, in Ethiopia, adverse rainfall conditions are associated with a lower likelihood of school enrollment by early adolescence as well as with lower cognitive test scores (Berhane et al, 2016 ; Randell & Gray, 2016 ).…”

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“…In particular, increased climate shocks can reduce farmers' productive investment and developmental investment. There is already evidence that climate shocks may cause young people to drop out of school and enter the labor market earlier in order to mitigate the impact on household livelihoods [54]. Obviously, this would limit the accumulation of human capital among rural residents, which would be bad.…”

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“…Furthermore, differential agricultural productivity between men and women is about 20-30% or more in dryland regions of Ethiopia and Nigeria (Ghanem 2011). Trisos et al (2022) highlight the disproportionate impact on children when adverse climatic conditions can reduce income among farming households, leading parents to pull children out of school (Marchetta et al 2019;Randell and Gray 2016), or where poor harvests from droughts or supply interruptions from extreme weather events lead to undernutrition among young children, negatively affecting cognitive development and schooling potential (Alderman et al 2006). In West and Central Africa, experiencing lower-than-average rainfall during early life is associated with up to 1.8 fewer years of completed schooling in adolescence Gray 2016, 2019).…”