Time series of repeat aerial photographs currently span decades in many regions. However, the lack of calibration data limits their use in forest change analysis. We propose an approach where we combine repeat aerial photography, tree-ring reconstructions, and Bayesian inference to study changes in forests. Using stereopairs of aerial photographs from five boreal forest landscapes, we visually interpreted canopy cover in contiguous 0.1-ha cells at three time points during 1959-2011. We used tree-ring measurements to produce calibration data for the interpretation, and to quantify the bias and error associated with the interpretation. Then, we discerned credible canopy cover changes from the interpretation error noise using Bayesian inference. We underestimated canopy cover using the historical low-quality photographs, and overestimated it using the recent high-quality photographs. Further, due to differences in tree species composition and canopy cover in the cells, the interpretation bias varied between the landscapes. In addition, the random interpretation error varied between and within the landscapes. Due to the varying bias and error, the magnitude of credibly detectable canopy cover change in the 0.1-ha cells depended on the studied time interval and landscape, ranging from −10 to −18 percentage points (decrease), and from +10 to +19 percentage points (increase). Hence, changes occurring at stand scales were detectable, but smaller scale changes could not be separated from the error noise. Besides the abrupt changes, also slow continuous canopy cover changes could be detected with the proposed approach. Given the wide availability of historical aerial photographs, the proposed approach can be applied for forest change analysis in biomes where tree-rings form, while accounting for the bias and error in aerial photo interpretation. that capture both slow and abrupt changes in forest ecosystems are required to understand how forest structure changes in time.Remote sensing provides records over large spatial extent even at remote locations. For example, the Landsat satellites provide observations on global coverage from the early 1970s onwards [6]. However, among remotely sensed records, aerial photographs span the longest time period and currently enable the fine-scale analysis of vegetation dynamics over decades in many locations of the world [7]. Accordingly, aerial photographs have been used to study spatial [8-10] and temporal [3,11,12] vegetation dynamics, even at the scale of an individual tree [13].As with any measurements, data derived from aerial photographs contain bias (systematic error) and error (random variation) [14]. For example, georectification errors [15], the aerial photo scale, defined by the focal length of the camera and the altitude from where the photo was taken [9,16], the quality (e.g., contrast, haziness, and shadowiness) [17,18], and texture and grain size of the photograph [18,19], as well as subjectivity in manual feature quantification [20], potentially produce errors. Hence, da...