The Rule, Not the Exception: One-Party Monopolies in the American States

Parry, Janine A.; Dowdle, Andrew; Long, Abigail; Kloss, Jessica R.

doi:10.1017/spq.2022.2

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Similarly, we control for unified government as it is easier to pass new bills when one party controls the House/Assembly, Senate, and governorship. For party competition, we use a 4-year folded Ranney index of state-level offices calculated by Parry et al (2022) while we use data from the Grossmann, Jordan, and McCrain (2020) database for unified government.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Descriptive Representation and Innovation in American Legislatures

Nickelson,

Jansa

2023

Political Research Quarterly

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Previous scholarship has linked increased representation of women, racial/ethnic minorities, the LGB community, and the working class to more representative legislative agendas and roll call voting. But it is unclear if descriptive representation of historically excluded groups also affects policy innovativeness. Borrowing from interdisciplinary research, we argue that diverse legislatures are more innovative, so long as legislators operate in a quality deliberative environment. We measure the descriptive representation of seven different underrepresented groups in state legislatures from 1984 to 2016. We find that representation of women is a key predictor of innovation, operationalized as the tendency for states to adopt new policies early. We also find the effect of women is not dependent on critical mass, is undermined by high levels of polarization, and helps boost the capacity of legislatures to produce unique policy language. Some models are suggestive of a relationship between racial/ethnic minority (Black, Latinx, Native American) representation and innovation, but the results are inconsistent. The study provides insights into how representation of women can enhance legislative capacity to innovate in public policy.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Descriptive Representation and Innovation in American Legislatures

Nickelson,

Jansa

2023

Political Research Quarterly

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“…Close contests give voters viable alternatives in governance and foster greater party mobilization and voter participation. Ideally, this leads to better policies and politician accountability (Burnham 1970(Burnham , 1974Key 1955;Parry et al 2022;Schattschneider 1960). Some scholars argue that a major consequence of this shift in partisanship was a precipitous drop in voter turnout post-1896 (Burnham 1965(Burnham , 1970.…”

Section: Using Prediction Market Data To Measure Electoral Competitio...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

Perez

2022

State Politics Policy Q.

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This study uses prediction market data from the nation’s historical election betting markets to measure electoral competition in the American states during the era before the advent of scientific polling. Betting odds data capture ex ante expectations of electoral closeness in the aggregate, and as such improve upon existing measures of competition based on election returns data. Situated in an analysis of the 1896 presidential election and its associated realignment, I argue that the market odds data show that people were able to anticipate the realignment and that expectations on the outcome in the states influenced voter turnout. Findings show that a month ahead of the election betting markets accurately forecast a McKinley victory in most states. This study further demonstrates that the market predictions identify those states where electoral competition would increase or decline that year and the consequences of these expected partisanship shifts on turnout. In places where the anticipation was for a close race voter expectations account for a turnout increase of as much as 6%. Participation dropped by 1%–6% in states perceived as becoming electorally uncompetitive. The results support the conversion and dealignment theories from the realignment literature.

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“…Here, we leverage the sudden and substantial influx of Republicans in the post-term-limits Arkansas General Assembly – and then again during the state’s wholesale partisan realignment beginning in 2010 – to learn more about the relationship between group size and legislative influence. These events provide a unique test case because no other state legislature since the New Deal has proceeded through Kanter’s group-composition classifications in such rapid succession (Parry et al, 2022).…”

Section: Critical Mass and Legislative Minoritiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does more matter? Critical mass and legislative influence

Nemerever

Parry

2022

Party Politics

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Scholars are divided on whether increased group size helps or hurts political minorities. We test the concept of “critical mass” using a different kind of long-time minority: pre-realignment Republicans in the American South. In Arkansas, after a century of token status, the minority party doubled its numbers in the late 1990s, held steady through the 2000s, then surged to a super majority. This stair-stepped transformation opened a unique window to address a question thus far examined only cross-sectionally: is an outgroup’s influence enhanced by an increase in numbers or does success become less likely as the majority reacts to a growing threat? We find support for the latter. As the minority expands, the likelihood their bills will be adopted, relative to majority bills, decreases markedly. The widened deficit is not, however, the consequence of diminished Republican success, but rather of a Democratic surge.

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The Rule, Not the Exception: One-Party Monopolies in the American States

Cited by 6 publications

References 46 publications

Descriptive Representation and Innovation in American Legislatures

Descriptive Representation and Innovation in American Legislatures

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

Does more matter? Critical mass and legislative influence

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