The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union

Abstract

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Capturing flood-risk dynamics with a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework

“…More specifically, levee and adaptation effects were observed to emerge from changes in community and individual vulnerability. These have prior been modelled with system dynamics (Di Baldassarre et al 2013Baldassarre et al , 2015 and, partly, with an agent-based approach on a continental scale (Haer et al 2019). The advantage of using an ABM is that the role of each individual household in the floodplain is incorporated in the analysis and flood risk is simulated not only over time but also spatially explicit.…”

“…Haer et al (2017) compared three different behavioural frameworks for the decision making of household agents on investing in loss-reducing measures, namely expected utility theory, prospect theory and prospect theory with adaptation of behaviours through Bayesian updating. Haer et al (2019) quantified the safe development paradox (levee effect) in Europe with an agent-based approach and further discussed policy implications. Dubbelboer et al (2017) examined the implementation of flood protection measures and the role of flood insurance with an ABM for the London borough of Camden, in order to develop a new insurance scheme.…”

Flood Risk Analysis and Assessment, Applications and Uncertainties: A Bibliometric Review

“…As a check and validation of future FRA trends and the fields and topics that seem to have the greatest future projection, the publications of the authors mentioned in Section 2.3 have been analyzed for the last two years (2019 and 2020). The result is illuminating, because the 28 records in the WoS databases published by these seven authors in this last half year (January-June 2020) on FRA, correspond to: psycho-social aspects (six records; e.g., [37,38]), the impact of global change (five records; e.g., [39]), coastal floods (five records; e.g., [40]) and global scale studies (four records; e.g., [41]); or combination of two or more (e.g., [42]). Analyzing the 112 records on FRA of these 7 authors in the years 2019 and 2020, all the emerging topics are also represented, since all but one of the records (111) include references to the global change.…”

Socio-Hydrological Modelling: The Influence of Reservoir Management and Societal Responses on Flood Impacts

“…Green, green-to-techno, and technological systems are characterized by variations of population density D, which increases or decreases according to the societal memory of floods (see Equations (11)). Hence, according to the lumped nature of the proposed model, it does not account for urban development plans, neither include where urbanisation occurs or its configuration in space.…”

“…The dynamic is known as levee effect [10]. A similar effect known as safe development paradox may emerge when the presence of the levee system reduces the individual measures leading to more severe consequences in case of extreme events [11]. On the contrary, adaptation effect can be observed following a flooding event as learning factors, such as reallocation, can help reducing the negative impact of an extreme event occurring shortly after a similar one [12,13].…”