The Safety Factors of Probability Reaching Limiting States of NPP Equipments and Pipelines During Different Operating Modes

Abstract

Reliability theory makes it possible to determine the probabilities of destruction, reaching limit states, equipment and pipeline failures (E&P). Normative documents, as a rule, define requirements for integral indicators of reliability or safety of objects, but do not establish requirements for admissible values of probabilities for individual systems and data elements of objects. This article proposes the approach for determining the permissible values of the probabilities of reaching the yield stress or ultimate strength by operating stresses on the basis of design data on loads and data from certificates on the mechanical properties of metal. During operation, the achievement of the working stresses in metal of E&P value of the permissible stress values is a probabilistic event, in this fact, the probabilistic approach has been developed to obtain the safety factor of probability reaching limiting states. The developed approach is based on the methods of strength science, statistical analysis and probability theory. The object of application of the developed approach is thermal mechanical equipment used in different branches of technology. Using the example of the main circulation pipeline of the NPP with WWER-440, the presence of a reserve in the probability of reaching the limit state is shown and a relationship is established between the stress variation coefficient and the calculated probability for normal operation and abnormal operation. This approach determines the reserve for the probability of destruction, which will justify the extension of the resource or optimize the operating parameters of the objects under consideration.