The Saudi Arabia–China relationship at a crossroad: A neoclassical realist analysis

Abstract

The Saudi Arabia-China relationship is at a crossroad.Riyadh has been continuously building a strategic economic partnership with Beijing and enhancing its security alliance with Washington. However, the two great powers are increasingly involved in tense power competition. This article applies neoclassical realism in trying to understand how systemic changes and several unit-level factors and their synergies and tensions characterize the Saudi-China relationship. It argues, in neoclassical realist terms, that the systemic factors shape the broad contours and general directions of states' foreign policies, but their real-world effects are mediated by unit-level factors. In this context, rapid foreign policy shifts on the Riyadh side, either those of balancing or bandwagoning, seem unlikely, despite rising systemic pressure; whereas economic pragmatism and hedging will continue to characterize the Saudi-China relations. A dualistic structure-namely, Saudi Arabia's security alliance and American and economic partnership with China-will endure.

Revisiting the modes of China's revisionism: a comment on Natalizia and Termine

“…Seven months later, Saudi Minister of Defense and Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman Al Sa'ud traveled to Beijing at the head of a sizable delegation of senior government officials. The trip resulted in the formation of a Higher Joint Committee charged with supervising a wide range of projects in infrastructure, trade and investment (Duan and Aldamer, 2022: 122); it also generated unprecedented collaborative arrangements that brought elite units of the Saudi armed forces to China for bilateral anti-terrorism exercises.…”

“…Various PRC-Saudi joint ventures in infrastructure and technological development got underway during 2017–18. Most prominent were ones in satellite communications and space exploration, along with projects related to electronic security (Fulton, 2020: 524; Duan and Aldamer, 2022: 122). In July 2019, the Saudi ministry of defense signed a memorandum of understanding with the PRC's Equipment Development Commission that gave the kingdom's armed forces direct access to the newly completed Bei Dou-2 Navigation Satellite System (Fulton, 2020: 15).…”

China-US Competition in the Middle Eastern Political Chessboard: An Analysis

“…Collaboration in the nuclear and technology sectors is part of the "1+2+3 cooperation pattern," which was described in China's Arab Policy Paper in 2016 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PRC, 13th January 2016). This not only increases China's influence on Saudi Arabia but also denotes a strengthening of the bilateral relationship (Duan, 2022).…”