The scientific nature of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model used in the system of radiological protection

Abstract

During the first half of the 20th century, it was commonly assumed that radiation-induced health effects occur only when the dose exceeds a certain threshold. This idea was discarded for stochastic effects when more knowledge was gained about the mechanisms of radiation-induced cancer. Currently, a key tenet of the international system of radiological protection is the linear no-threshold (LNT) model where the risk of radiation-induced cancer is believed to be directly proportional to the dose received, even at dose levels where the effects cannot be proven directly. The validity of the LNT approach has been questioned on the basis of a claim that only conclusions that can be verified experimentally or epidemiologically are scientific and LNT should, thus, be discarded because the system of radiological protection must be based on solid science. The aim of this publication is to demonstrate that the LNT concept can be tested in principle and fulfils the criteria of a scientific hypothesis. The fact that the system of radiological protection is also based on ethics does not render it unscientific either. One of the fundamental ethical concepts underlying the LNT model is the precautionary principle. We explain why it is the best approach, based on science and ethics (as well as practical experience), in situations of prevailing uncertainty.