The sea level variability and its projections over the Indo‐Pacific Ocean in CMIP5 models

Deepa, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05701-3

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The AICC current regime of the SIO and the west coast of Australia also show a considerable increase in the sea level variability. The thermocline ridge region, however, shows a marked decrease in variability which is in agreement with the CMIP5 models (Deepa et al, 2021). Notably, the thermocline ridge region is shown to be one of the internal variabilities dominated regions (Han et al, 2014).…”

Section: Projectionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…The western Arabian sea shows the strongest increase in the sea level variability with an increase of ~30% compared to the historical period under the high emission scenario. This is a significant increase over the CMIP5 model estimates on the projected variability of this region (see Figure 8e of Deepa et al, 2021). The AICC current regime of the SIO and the west coast of Australia also show a considerable increase in the sea level variability.…”

Section: Projectionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Observed variability of the Indian Ocean shows maxima along the front of the ACC in the SIO (Figure 4a) owing to the interannual meridional movement of the ACC current regime (Figure 4g) driven by ENSO and SAM climate modes (Kim and Orsi, 2014). The thermocline ridge region of the STIO also exhibits stronger variability primarily influenced by the South Equatorial Current (SEC) and the associated embedded eddies in seasonal and interannual timescale (Wang et al, 2021;Deepa et al, 2021). The region off the west coast of Australia in the latitude band of 15 o S-35 o S also show strong interannual variability (Figure 4g) driven by the eddies generated due to the baroclinic instabilities between the surface eastward flowing South Indian Counter Current (SICC) and subsurface westward flowing SEC (Jia et al, 2011;Menezes et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Indian Ocean Dynamic Sea Level, Variability And Projections In CMIP6 Models

Chatterjee

Sajidh

2022

Preprint

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The regional sea level variability and its projection amidst the global sea level rise is one of the major concerns for coastal communities. The dynamic sea level plays a major role in the observed spatial deviations in regional sea level rise from the global mean. The present study evaluates 27 climate model simulations from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) for their representation of the historical mean states, variability and future projections for the Indian Ocean. Most models reproduce the observed mean state of the dynamic sea level realistically, however consistent positive bias is evident across the latitudinal range of the Indian Ocean. The strongest sea level bias is seen along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) regime owing to the stronger than observed south Indian Ocean westerlies and its equatorward bias. Further, this equatorward shift of the wind field resulted in stronger positive windstress curl across the southeasterly trade winds in the southern tropical basin and easterly wind bias along the equatorial waveguide. These anomalous easterly equatorial winds cause upwelling in the eastern part of the basin and keeps the thermocline shallower in the model than observed, resulted in enhanced variability for the dipole zonal mode or Indian Ocean dipole in the tropics. In the north Indian Ocean, the summer monsoon winds are weak in the model causing weaker upwelling and positive sea level bias along the western Arabian Sea. The high-resolution models compare better in simulating the sea level variability, particularly in the eddy dominated regions like the ACC regime in interannual timescale. However, these improved variabilities do not necessarily produce a better mean state likely due to the enhanced mixing driven by parametrizations set in these high-resolution models. Finally, the overall pattern of the projected dynamic sea level rise is found to be similar for the mid (SSP2-4.5) and high-end (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, except that the magnitude is higher under the high emission situation. Notably, the projected dynamic sea level change is found to be milder when only the best performing models are used compared to the full ensemble.

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Section: Projectionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Projectionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Indian Ocean Dynamic Sea Level, Variability And Projections In CMIP6 Models

Chatterjee

Sajidh

2022

Preprint

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“…While we are motivated here by long‐term regional sea‐level changes, the role of Madden‐Julian Oscillation on an intraseasonal timescale (Oliver & Thompson, 2010; Vialard et al., 2009; X. Zhang et al., 2009), monsoon on seasonal and semi‐annual timescales (e.g., McCreary et al., 1996; Qu et al., 2022), IOD and El Niño Southern Oscillation on an interannual timescale (e.g., Hameed et al., 2018; McPhaden et al., 2006), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on a decadal timescale (Deepa et al., 2021; Nidheesh et al., 2019; Piecuch et al., 2019) and even remote oceanic Rossby and Kelvin wave forcing (e.g., Cheng et al., 2016) may be important for sea‐level attribution and demand further investigation. Although we argue the positive IOD‐like change in the tropical Indian Ocean in the climate change time scale (shown as the difference between two 30 years period), the impact of different natural and anthropogenic forcings on IOD characteristics on the interannual scale is beyond the scope of this work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea‐Level Change in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool Region

Samanta,

Vairagi,

Richter

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Detecting and attributing sea‐level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low‐lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea‐level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea‐level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole‐like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea‐level rise in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea‐level changes in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region.

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“…The Philippine Sea (PS) in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the regions with the strongest variability in sea level and upper‐layer circulation (Han et al., 2013, 2017; D. Hu et al., 2015; Qiu & Chen, 2012; Qiu et al., 2021), particularly on interannual timescales linked to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the developing stage of El Niño events, the PS shows sea level falling in response to westerly wind bursts over the western Pacific, with the opposite changes occurring in La Niña condition (Chang et al., 2013; Deepa et al., 2021; Han et al., 2019; Li et al., 2012; Q. Ren, Li, Zheng, et al., 2020; Zhai & Hu, 2012). Super El Niño events such as the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 ones gave rise to sea level falling near the western tropical Pacific islands by up to 20–30 cm, dramatically increasing the explosion risks of shallow coral reefs and damaging local ecosystems (e.g., Widlansky et al., 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Special Sea‐Level and Circulation Anomalies in the Philippine Sea During the 2006/2007 and 2009/2010 El Niño Events

Wang

et al. 2023

JGR Oceans

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The Philippine Sea (PS) tends to show sea‐level falling and cyclonic upper‐layer circulation anomalies during the developing stage (spring and summer) of El Niño, with notable influences on the circulation, climate, and biosystems of downstream regions. These changes show diversity across individual events, partly associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation complexity and bringing uncertainties to scientific attribution and prediction. Here, we focus on the positive sea‐level anomalies (SLAs) and anticyclonic circulation anomalies in the boreal spring and summer of 2006 and 2009, which are opposite in sign to the changes observed during other El Niño events. Correspondingly, exceptional changes were seen in downstream regions, such as the enhanced Indonesian throughflow in the Makassar Strait. Our analysis highlights the persistent equatorial easterly wind anomalies during the preceding winter, which were likely favorable for these special changes in 2006 and 2009. This is confirmed by sensitivity experiments of a simplified ocean model. The results show that the negative off‐equatorial wind stress curls in the western and central North Pacific play the key role in causing positive SLAs in the PS through evoking downwelling Rossby waves, and equatorial winds played a secondary role. Further analysis indicates that such special changes of the PS tend to take place in late‐onset weak El Niño events following the La Niña conditions.

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The sea level variability and its projections over the Indo‐Pacific Ocean in CMIP5 models

Cited by 7 publications

References 56 publications

Indian Ocean Dynamic Sea Level, Variability And Projections In CMIP6 Models

Indian Ocean Dynamic Sea Level, Variability And Projections In CMIP6 Models

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea‐Level Change in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool Region

Special Sea‐Level and Circulation Anomalies in the Philippine Sea During the 2006/2007 and 2009/2010 El Niño Events

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