The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism

Abstract

German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of communism. We show in three steps that the populations in East and West Germany were far from being randomly selected treatment and control groups. First, the later border is already visible in many socio-economic characteristics in pre-World War II data. Second, World War II and the subsequent occupying forces affected East and West differently. Third, a selective fifth of the population fled from East to West Germany before the building of the Wall in 1961. In light of our findings, we propose a more cautious interpretation of the extensive literature on the enduring effects of communist systems on economic outcomes, political preferences, cultural traits, and gender roles.

Spreading the disease: The role of culture

“…These are daily data by gender, age group and administrative district (412 Landkreise in total). In this analysis, we focus only on the 324 West Germany districts, because including East Germany could bias the results (Becker et al (2020)). In order to be matched to a series of regional characteristics, these COVID-19 series were collapsed by NUTS-3 region and date (running from January 28 to May 01), resulting in a balanced panel of more than 32,000 observations.…”

“…We choose to focus on West Germany only, as the East part historically exhibits systematic di↵erences and could bias our results(Becker et al (2020)). Given the very low number of cases/deaths and Catholics it would very likely bias the results in our favour.…”

The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany

“…The first and second assumption are likely to be violated in our setting. As Becker et al (2020) document, the post-war border is already visible in many economic variables before World War II and East Germany differed from West Germany in many more ways than its BCG vaccination policy. Selective sorting is unlikely during the Cold War years and was probably not motivated by the different BCG regimes, but selective migration did occur prior to the closing of the border in 1961.…”

“…This border separated capitalist West Germany from communist East Germany from 1949 to 1990 until the two countries were reunified as the current Federal Republic of Germany. In line with many other Western European countries, West Germany discontinued a policy of de facto universal BCG vaccination (which began in the 1950s) for the general population in 1975, while, equally in line with other former Soviet Bloc countries, East Germany strictly enforced a policy of mandatory BCG vaccination at birth from 1953 until 1990. Although it is known that other characteristics change discontinuously at the old East German border (even before it existed, see Becker et al, 2020, Fuchs-Schündeln and Hassan, 2015, Alesina and Fuchs-Schündeln, 2007, these differences are considerably smaller than if different countries or regions are compared. Moreover, areas of Germany on both sides of the discontinuity have been subject to the same state response to the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

A Glimpse of Freedom: Allied Occupation and Political Resistance in East Germany

“…In this regard, our findings also provide evidence on the importance of initial conditions for nation-building. 3 Finally, we contribute to understanding the effects of Germany's partition after World War II (Fuchs-Schündeln and Masella, 2016;Becker et al, 2020). While most work has relied on East-West comparisons between the (democratic) Federal Republic of Germany and the (autocratic) German Democratic Republic (e.g., Alesina and Fuchs-Schündeln, 2007;Laudenbach et al, 2019), our empirical strategy provides a new perspective by using the line of contact as a source of variation within the GDR.…”