Large (N~1 km 3 ) submarine landslides can potentially generate very destructive tsunamis and damage expensive 19 sea floor infrastructure. It is therefore important to understand their frequency and triggers, and whether their 20 frequency is likely to change significantly due to future climatic and sea level change. It is expensive to both 21 collect seafloor samples and to date landslides accurately; therefore we need to know how many landslides 22 we need to date, and with what precision, to answer whether sea level is a statistically significant control. Previ-23 ous non-statistical analyses have proposed that there is strong correlation between climate driven changes and 24 landslide frequency. In contrast, a recent statistical analysis by Urlaub et al. (2013) of a global compilation of 25 41 large (N1 km 3 ) submarine landslide ages in the last 30 ka concluded that these ages have a temporally random 26 distribution. This would suggest that landslide frequency is not strongly controlled by a single non-random global 27 factor, such as eustatic sea level. However, there are considerable uncertainties surrounding the age of almost all 28 large landslides, as noted by Urlaub et al. (2013). This contribution answers a key question that Urlaub et al. 29 (2013) posed, but could not address -are large submarine landslides in this global record indeed temporally ran-30 dom, or are the uncertainties in landslide ages simply too great to tell? We use simulated age distributions in 31 order to determine the significance of available age constraints from real submarine landslides. First, it is 32 shown that realistic average uncertainties in landslide ages of ±3 kyr may indeed result in a near-random distri-33 bution of ages, even where there are non-random triggers such as sea level. Second, we show how combination of 34 non-random landslide ages from just 3 different settings, can easily produce an apparently random distribution if 35 the landslides from different settings are out of phase. Third, if landslide frequency was directly proportional to 36 sea level, we show that at least 10 to 53 landslides would need to be dated perfectly globally -to show this cor-37 relation. We conclude that it is prudent to focus on well-dated landslides from one setting with similar triggers, 38 rather than having a poorly calibrated understanding of ages in multiple settings. (Hampton et al., 1996; Hühnerbach and Masson, 2004; 55 Talling et al., 2007). Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of large sub-56 marine landslides is that they typically can occur on very low gradients worldwide, which includes the last 120 ka (Fig. 1). This is the largest The analysis by Urlaub et al. (2013) included the often considerable un-136 certainties in landslide ages in this analysis (Fig. 1), unlike most previ- bin, and the number of bins with one, two or more landslide ages.
154It was found that there was no statistically significant difference be-
155tween the frequency of bins with 1, 2, 3 or more landslide ages, both 156 real and s...