The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory

Gudmundsson, Tryggvi

doi:10.5089/9798400263446.001

IMF Working Papers

2024

DOI: 10.5089/9798400263446.001

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The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory

Tryggvi Gudmundsson

Abstract: IMF WorkingPapers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting

Mallick

2024

Australian Economic Review

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Australia, like many other countries, experienced an unexpected surge in inflation following the COVID‐19 pandemic. This has renewed interest in the Phillips curve because of its important implications for monetary policy. We estimate the price Phillips curve in the post‐inflation targeting period using the most recent state‐level data. Identification relies on variation in regional demand that policymakers do not aim to stabilize. After controlling for cost‐push shocks and equilibrium unemployment, we obtain a modest slope of the Phillips curve and, more importantly, we do not find any steepening of the Phillips curve in the post‐COVID period. Without correct identification, the post‐COVID Phillips curve would be steeper as documented for other countries including the United States. We also find that the slope gradually decreases with the level of unemployment.

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The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting

Mallick

2024

Australian Economic Review

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The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory

Abstract: IMF WorkingPapers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Cited by 1 publication

References 19 publications

The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting

The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting

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