The short-time dynamics of issue ownership and its impact on the vote

Abstract

This paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of issue ownership and its effect on electoral choice. We hypothesize that voters who change their mind with regard to the party they deem most competent to handle the top issue are more probable to change their vote choice, than those who do not change their evaluation of competence. Second, we claim that the impact of a change in perception of party issue competence increases with the electoral strength of the party benefiting from this change. The analysis is based on data from a Rolling-Cross-Section with a panel component carried out in the 2011 Swiss Election Study. The results show the expected effects of change in issue competence assessment and the conditional role of party size

Issue Competence and its Influence on Voting Behavior in the Swiss 2015 Elections

“…The fairly high stability of (associative and competence) issue ownership on the aggregate level is in line with the literature, which argues that issue ownership is not likely to transform or to disappear overnight. However, and as already mentioned, high stability on the aggregate level may go along with instability on the individual level (Lanz and Sciarini, forthcoming): Citizens may change their perceptions of parties' issue competence during the electoral campaign, but these changes may remain unnoticed on the aggregate level, as they operate in any direction and thus tend to cancel each other out.…”

“…). Based on the panel component of the RCS carried out in the 2011 Swiss election study, Lanz and Sciarini (forthcoming) analyze the short‐term dynamics of issue ownership during the electoral campaign and its effect on the vote choice. They show that stability in issue ownership perception on the aggregate level goes hand in hand with a great deal of instability of citizens' perception of parties' issue competence on the individual level.…”

Short‐Term Dynamics in Issue Ownership and Electoral Choice Formation

“…There is still scant research on the effects of the short‐term dynamics in issue ownership perceptions, so how those dynamics influence stability and change in party choice. Lanz and Sciarini's () study is one of the few exceptions to the rule. Based on panel data from the 2011 Swiss election, it shows that voters who change their evaluation of parties’ issue competence during the election campaign are more likely to convert to another party than voters who hold stable perceptions with respect to parties’ issue competence.…”

“…While Lanz and Sciarini's () study makes a breakthrough, it has two limitations. First, it does not tell us whether voters update their vote choice in line with their change in issue competence evaluations, that is, whether voters convert to the party benefitting from their change in competence attribution, or to another party.…”

“…First, it does not tell us whether voters update their vote choice in line with their change in issue competence evaluations, that is, whether voters convert to the party benefitting from their change in competence attribution, or to another party. Second, Lanz and Sciarini () measure issue ownership based on the MIP and MCP questions. However, the exclusive character of the MIP question is a major shortcoming, since it restricts the analysis to the most salient issue.…”