The Simulation of the “production-living-ecological” space and ecological effect assessment in the Gansu-Qinghai Contiguous Region of the upper Yellow River

Abstract

This study explores changes in production-living-ecological space (PLES) and evaluate its ecological impacts in the Gansu-Qinghai contiguous region of the upper Yellow River. The research aims to clarify the historical trends in PLES transformations by analyzing land use data from 2000 to 2020. Using 2020 land use data as a baseline, we employ the FLUS model to estimate the evolution of the PLES within the study region under the SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5 scenarios from 2030 to 2060, as well as the ecological environmental quality (EEQ) in 2035 for these scenarios. The results of this study show that, (1) Under all the three scenarios, living space within the study area shows an expansionary trend, while ecological space decreases. In the SSP5 scenario, production space area increases, while it diminishes in the other two scenarios. (2) PLES evolution patterns are relatively consistent across the three scenarios. Forest and meadow ecological land predominant, agricultural production and urban living land primarily cluster in the northeastern part, and water ecological land is interspersed throughout the central and southwestern regions. (3) By 2035, the ecological environmental quality index (EEQI) within the research area improves compared to the 2020 baseline of 0.41297, with the projected values of 0.41805(SSP1), 0.41398(SSP2), and 0.41562(SSP5). The study’s conclusions provide valuable insights for the natural environment conservation and land development in the upper Yellow River Basin.