The six scenario archetypes framework: A systematic investigation of science fiction films set in the future

Fergnani, Alessandro; Song, Zhaoli

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102645

Cited by 35 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…We followed grounded theory guidelines (Charmaz 2014; Strauss and Corbin 1998) and adapted the procedures of Fergnani and Song (2020a) with three steps of data coding and analysis: films transcriptions, coding, and emergent theory construction . This approach fits well with our goal of extracting theory from films, which is a novel methodological development in grounded theory (Fergnani and Song 2020a, 2020b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…Futures scholars have paid attention to films, particularly sci-fi films, for their implications for Futures studies (Lombardo and Ramos 2015; Rumpala 2012). Fergnani and Song (2020b) studied the social imaginaries of the future through 140 films set in the future. They identified six major images portrayed in films, Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds , The Powers that Be, Disarray, and Inversion, which represent six macroscopic scenarios of destiny of humankind, that is, scenario archetypes.…”

Section: Theoretical Background: Collective Social Imaginaries and Filmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Pandemic Films Help Us Understand Outbreaks: Implications for Futures and Foresight

Song

Fergnani

2022

World Futures Review

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We analyzed 30 pandemic films and developed a processual model to explain the social-level coping mechanisms to confront pandemics as portrayed in films. The model describes the underlying collective understanding of disease outbreaks. The model suggests that pandemic films divide the disease outbreak into three phases: emergence, transmission, and termination. Concurrently, three social processes tend to be activated to cope with the pandemic: healthcare, political, and public awareness. This model is used to compare the social imaginary reflected in films with the current COVID-19 outbreak. The resemblance of the model and the current outbreak suggests that fictional pandemic films may still follow our collective understanding of the pandemic dynamics. Four scenarios are suggested as road maps for futures and foresight practice concerned with future pandemic outbreaks.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Theoretical Background: Collective Social Imaginaries and Filmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Pandemic Films Help Us Understand Outbreaks: Implications for Futures and Foresight

Song

Fergnani

2022

World Futures Review

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“…CLA (Inayatullah, 1998) deconstructs the internal dimension of the future by looking at collective perceptions. Several scenario planning methods, most notably the intuitive logics tradition (Schwartz, 1996; van der Heijden, 1996; Chermack, 2011) and archetypal approaches (Bezold, 2009a, 2009b; Dator, 2009; Fergnani & Song, 2020; Hines & Bishop, 2020), are relativeley more focused on the external or operational environment. Identity Wind Tunneling can enhance both internally and externally focused scenario methods as it considers how perceptions of organizational identities, a distinctive internal dimension, can play out in several futures of the external environment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Serra (2013) argued that incasting has to do with seeing “the future” from alternative perspectives, which is to say that this approach emphasizes the necessity of alternative views rather than focusing on organizational identity, although the process of articulating a preferred future requires at least the presumption of a well‐articulated organizational identity. How organizational identity is questioned is also left unexplored in subsequent adaptations and enhancements of Dator's archetypal approach (Bezold, 2009a, 2009b; Fergnani & Song, 2020; Hines & Bishop, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios

Fergnani

Sweeney

2021

Futures & Foresight Science

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In a turbulent environment characterized by unexpected events, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic, a sharp oil price decline, and dramatic economic crises, many organizations face not only challenges but also an “identity crisis” as they are unable to respond to the question "who are we as an organization?" Some organizations may concurrently hold multiple identities without being clear on whether these are shared and agreed upon, and on their role in potentially disruptive futures. In response to this challenge and addressing a methodological gap in the broader futures and foresight field, we draw on both futures and foresight as well as management and organization literature to propose a new organizational foresight method: Identity Wind Tunneling (IWT). Designed as an enhancement of wind tunneling approaches, IWT allows an organization to understand, test, and manage multiple organizational identities. Furthermore, IWT facilitates the alignment of organizational identities across a range of possible futures created during a scenario planning process with the ultimate goal of finding a strategic identity. This represents the central, enduring, and distinctive role that the organization embodies while pursuing a long‐term and holistic strategic direction that is robust across all scenarios. The strategic identity either clarifies or reimagines the identity of the organization. The paper provides a step‐by‐step explanation of how to implement IWT and presents a case study of its application. The method is also presented with a series of open‐source templates created on the whiteboard collaborative platform Miro (https://miro.com/app/board/o9J_kqakYjs=/).

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“…This set of archetypes clearly expands previous generic types of scenarios as suggested for instance by Jim Dator who distinguished essentially between four types: (1) Growth/Continuation, (2) Limits/Discipline, (3) Decline/Collapse and (4) Transformation (various publications). On the other hand, a study based on the analysis of 140 science fiction confirmed only three of these previously proposed archetypes and claims to have uncovered three new archetypes (Fergnani & Song, 2020). As a result of an online survey with 950 participants representative of the Australian population, they find a high degree of correspondence, but not a total match, between their six archetypes and five identified myths or attitudes towards the future 3 .…”

Section: Archetypes In Recent Scenario Studiesmentioning

confidence: 92%

Methodological choices in developing scenarios in vocational education and training – Reflections on three European scenario projects

Grollmann

Markowitsch²

2022

HERJ

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The aim of this article is to explore methodological issues related to scenarios on vocational education and training (VET). In particular, we examine the extent to which VET scenarios depend or build on generalizable future expectations (“myths of the future”) or archetypes of the future. The analysis builds on a review of recent methodological literature on scenario building applied to three international scenario studies on VET carried out by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop), in which the authors were partly involved. We argue that neither scenarios on a particular issue (“issue-based”) nor on the future of a particular society (“area-based”) do justice to diverse VET systems but that scenarios in VET need to be “institution-based”. Hence, both the relative independence of VET systems and their path dependency – especially in transnational projects – need to be taken into account. In conclusion, we propose that the regular application of the scenario approach could be a useful complement to various other prospective approaches used to guide European employment and vocational training policies.

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The six scenario archetypes framework: A systematic investigation of science fiction films set in the future

Abstract: Graphical abstract

Cited by 35 publications

References 39 publications

How Pandemic Films Help Us Understand Outbreaks: Implications for Futures and Foresight

How Pandemic Films Help Us Understand Outbreaks: Implications for Futures and Foresight

Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios

Methodological choices in developing scenarios in vocational education and training – Reflections on three European scenario projects

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