The Southern Oscillation index as a predictor of the probability of low streamflows in New Zealand

Moss, Marshall E.; Pearson, C. P.; McKerchar, Alistair I

doi:10.1029/94wr01308

Cited by 48 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…For example, in the Southern Alps of New Zealand, McKerchar and co-workers have demonstrated a clear relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index and seasonal inflows to a group of large lakes McKerchar et al, 1998). The relationship is sufficiently strong and consistent that it provides a predictive capability with respect, in particular, to the probability of low streamflows being experienced (Moss et al, 1994).…”

Section: Open For Discussion Until 1 October 2000mentioning

confidence: 88%

“…This is unsurprising, given the considerable degree of varia-bility in the response of precipitation and temperatures that is described by Gordon (1986) and Mullan (1996). Nevertheless, application of the Bayesian statistical approach to streamflows used by Moss et al (1994) no doubt would provide additional information on the altered probabilities of low and peak streamflows during ENSO episodes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods

Mosley¹

2000

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The response of monthly 7-day low flow, monthly instantaneous peak flow, and monthly frequency of flood events to El Nino and La Nina episodes is investigated for 18 rivers that represent a diverse range of climatic types throughout New Zealand. A significant positive or negative deviation from the long-term average was observed in over half the possible combinations of river, streamflow index, and type of ENSO episode; significant deviations were most frequent in the case of low flow, especially during La Nina episodes. Patterns of streamflow response differ widely between rivers, and the response of a given river to individual ENSO episodes is very variable. The patterns of streamflow response to ENSO are consistent to some extent with the climatic effects of ENSO already identified by meteorologists. Two core regions can be defined in which streamflow tends to respond in the same way. These are in the northeast of the North Island, and in the axial ranges of the South Island, where there are significant effects of ENSO on the frequency and duration of rain-bearing northeasterly and westerly winds respectively. The patterns of response strongly reflect topography, and the exposure of catchments to predominant air masses.

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Section: Open For Discussion Until 1 October 2000mentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods

Mosley¹

2000

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…The ENSO phenomenon has also been directly linked to interannual variations in streamflow [27,47,76]. Although the relationship between extreme flows and ENSO has been occasionally examined (for low flows, see [69]; for high flows, see [45]), the statistics of extremes have not been used. More generally, both nonlinear dynamical theory and observational evidence support the existence of climate ''regimes'' [71,89].…”

Section: Covariatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistics of extremes in hydrology

Katz¹,

Parlange²,

Naveau³

2002

Advances in Water Resources

1,402

1,108

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The statistics of extremes have played an important role in engineering practice for water resources design and management. How recent developments in the statistical theory of extreme values can be applied to improve the rigor of hydrologic applications and to make such analyses more physically meaningful is the central theme of this paper. Such methodological developments primarily relate to maximum likelihood estimation in the presence of covariates, in combination with either the block maxima or peaks over threshold approaches. Topics that are treated include trends in hydrologic extremes, with the anticipated intensification of the hydrologic cycle as part of global climate change. In an attempt to link downscaling (i.e., relating large-scale atmosphereocean circulation to smaller-scale hydrologic variables) with the statistics of extremes, statistical downscaling of hydrologic extremes is considered. Future challenges are reviewed, such as the development of more rigorous statistical methodology for regional analysis of extremes, as well as the extension of Bayesian methods to more fully quantify uncertainty in extremal estimation. Examples include precipitation and streamflow extremes, as well as economic damage associated with such extreme events, with consideration of trends and dependence on patterns in atmosphere-ocean circulation (e.g., El Niñ no phenomenon).

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“…The heaviest precipitation is located near the southeast coast of Iceland, with average values of about 3000 mm yr Ϫ1 and maxima exceeding 4000 mm yr Ϫ1 over Myrdalsjökull and south of Vatnajökull. Given that the relationship between large-and regional/local-scale atmospheric behavior is highly nonlinear (Moss et al 1994), atmospheric physically based models need to be extended to these regions and scales to complement approximate observational syntheses.…”

Section: Precipitation Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Iceland Using Polar MM5*

Bromwich

Bai

Bjarnason³

2005

Monthly Weather Review

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High-resolution regional climate simulations of Iceland for 1991-2000 have been performed using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesocale Model (MM5) modified for use in polar regions (Polar MM5) with three nested domains and short-duration integrations. The simulated results are compared with monthly mean surface observations from Iceland for 1991-2000 to demonstrate the high level of model performance; correlation coefficients exceed 0.9 for most variables considered.The simulation results are used to analyze the near-surface climate over Iceland. The simulated nearsurface winds in winter are primarily katabatic. The land-sea-breeze circulation is clearly evident in summer. The land is colder than the ocean during winter, with a strong (weak) temperature gradient along the southern (northern) coast. This temperature pattern over the sloping terrain forces the katabatic wind. The diurnal cycle of near-surface air temperature is marked in summer over the land areas, which drives the land-sea breeze. The near-surface climate variations for extremes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during winter and summer result from the large-scale atmospheric advection conditions.The time-averaged mesoscale precipitation distribution over Iceland is reasonably well simulated by Polar MM5. Winter precipitation rates are double those during the summer, reflecting the much greater winter cyclonic activity. The simulated interannual precipitation variations during winter for 1991-2000 agree with those observed from snow accumulation measurements on the Vatnajökull ice cap. The winter precipitation decrease for 1991-2000 dominates the annual signal for all of Iceland except the northeastern and eastern parts where the precipitation increases. The large precipitation trends (decadal decrease of up to 50%) are caused by the eastward shift and weakening of the Icelandic low during the 1990s, as a result of changes in the NAO modulation of regional climate.

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The Southern Oscillation index as a predictor of the probability of low streamflows in New Zealand

Cited by 48 publications

References 5 publications

Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods

Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods

Statistics of extremes in hydrology

High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Iceland Using Polar MM5*

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