The Spatiotemporal Regime of Glacier Runoff in Oases Indicates the Potential Climatic Risk in Dryland Areas of China

Abstract

Abstract. Glaciers continuously affected by climate change are of great concern; their supply and runoff variation tendency under the pressure of increasing populations, especially in dryland areas, should be studied. Due to the difficulty of observing glacier runoff, little attention has been given to establishing high-resolution and long-term series datasets established for glacial runoff. Using the latest dataset using digital elevation models (DEMs) to obtain regional individual glacier mass balance, simulating the spatiotemporal regime of glacier runoff in oases that support almost the entire income in the dryland areas of China (DAC) could be possible. The simulations quantitatively assess glacier runoff, including meltwater runoff and delayed runoff, in each basin of the DAC at a spatial resolution of 100 m from 1961 to 2015, classify glaciers according to the potential climatic risks based on the prediction results. The total glacier runoff in the DAC is (98.52 ± 67.37) × 108 m3, in which the meltwater runoff is (63.43 ± 42.17) × 108 m3, accounting for 64.38 %. Most basins had continuously increasing tendencies of different magnitudes from 1961 to 2015, except for the Shiyang River basin, which reached its peak in approximately 2000. Glacier runoff nurtured nearly 143,939.24 km2 of oasis agricultural areas (OAA) until 2015, while 19 regions with a total population of 14 million were built alongside the oases, where glacier runoff occupies an important place in agricultural, industrial and municipal water consumption. Therefore, providing a long time series of glacier runoff for different river basins is of great significance to the sustainable development of the oasis economy in the arid zones.

Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Exploration of Trade-Offs and Synergistic Relationships in Arid Areas: A Case Study of the Kriya River Basin in Xinjiang, China

“…The Kriya River Basin (KRB, China, 35°14′ N-39°30′ N, 81°09′ E-82°14′ E, Figure 1) is situated at the southern edge of the Taklamakan Desert, at the northern foothills of the Kunlun Mountain Range, occupying a total land area of about 4 × 10 4 km 2 [46]. The KRB's topography is characterized by highlands in the south and lowlands in the north, with pronounced vertical zonal contrasts throughout the entire landscape [47].…”

Regional Characteristics and Impact Factors of Change in Terrestrial Water Storage in Northwestern China From 2002 to 2020

“…The southeastern monsoon provides the water vapor for the P around the Qilian Mountains [37]. Surface water bodies (e.g., rivers and lakes) are generally expanding to accommodate the growth of P and/or glacier meltwater [26,[38][39][40][41].…”

“…The NWC region has been getting warmer and wetter in recent decades [19], which is widely manifested as P growth [33,64], increasing ET [31], lake expansion [40,41,65], glacier shrinkages [25,38], runoff increase [25], and so on. Despite the obvious growth of surface water bodies (runoff and lake volume) and P, the TWS has been generally decreasing in Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor during 2002-2020 (Table 2, Fig.…”