2001
DOI: 10.1177/009365001028002001
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The Spiral of Silence in the 1948 Presidential Election

Abstract: Noelle-Neumann's spiral of silence is tested with data from the 1948 Elmira election study. Results indicate that support for the theory and trends in the data are consistent with expectations for the spiral of silence as an additional explanation for the famous election misprediction. Statistical tests affirm Noelle-Neumann's suggestion that social isolation is associated with fear of isolation and provide partial support for the idea that social isolation interacts with fear of isolation in the spiral of sil… Show more

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Cited by 27 publications
(17 citation statements)
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“…Contending with and falling between both 'change' and 'reinforcement' theory are media influence models claiming that mass media can have greater influence than mere reinforcement but have insufficient power to actually change values (McCombs & Shaw, 1972, 1993McDonald, Glynn, Kim, & Ostman, 2001;Noelle-Neumann, 1973). Very broadly this perspective argues that media can help to shape people's opinions, values and attitudes.…”
Section: Model Three: Shapingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Contending with and falling between both 'change' and 'reinforcement' theory are media influence models claiming that mass media can have greater influence than mere reinforcement but have insufficient power to actually change values (McCombs & Shaw, 1972, 1993McDonald, Glynn, Kim, & Ostman, 2001;Noelle-Neumann, 1973). Very broadly this perspective argues that media can help to shape people's opinions, values and attitudes.…”
Section: Model Three: Shapingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As politicians and political pundits continue to extend their reach through cable news networks and social media, it is the responsibility of social studies educators to train students how to see through misinformation and half-truths, discern political fact from opinion, and become active and engaged consumers of political information. (McDonald, Glynn, Kim, & Ostman, 2001), and the 1988 California gubernatorial race that led to the so-called "Bradley Effect" in which White voters may lie about their willingness to vote for minority candidates (Payne, 2010).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Others have operationalized opinion expression as answering a question presented by a pollster (e.g., Glynn & McLeod, 1984;Glynn & Park, 1997;McDonald, Glynn, Kim, & Ostman, 2001). In those studies, a response other than ''don't know'' or refusing is treated as opinion expression.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Some researchers have asked participants how willing they would be to be interviewed by a reporter (e.g., Baldassare & Katz, 1996; Katz & Baldassare, 1994; Salmon & Neuwirth, 1990; Salmon & Oshagan, 1990), who it is fair to assume would be asking questions about what he or she thinks. Others have operationalized opinion expression as answering a question presented by a pollster (e.g., Glynn & McLeod, 1984; Glynn & Park, 1997; McDonald, Glynn, Kim, & Ostman, 2001). In those studies, a response other than “don’t know” or refusing is treated as opinion expression.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%