The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Russian Regions in 2020: Models and Reality

Pilyasov, Alexander; Zamyatina, Nadezhda; Kotov, Egor

doi:10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-4-3

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Therefore, disease incidence in this group is lower compared to younger population reducing average mortality in the region. This result is consistent with earlier studies (Goroshko and Patsala 2021; Zemtsov and Baburin 2020;Pilyasov et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultssupporting

confidence: 94%

“…It is natural that in richer regions with well-developed industry, transport and wholesale trade, the level of business activity is higher and more people continued to work even during the lockdown, therefore both morbidity and mortality were relatively higher. The obtained conclusion contradicts results of many foreign and one Russian work (Khalatbari-Soltani et al 2020;Caul 2020;Ettensperger 2021;Dokhov and Topnikov 2021) but does comply with results of a cross-country study (Chaudhry et al 2020) and studies based on data of the Russian regions (Zemtsov and Baburin 2020;Pilyasov et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultscontrasting

confidence: 77%

“…A study conducted by Druzhinin and Molchanova (2021) povides estimation of the mortality growth regression in the Russian regions in 2020 wich showed insignificance of income variables. A study by Pilyasov et al (2021) assessing excess mortality in Russia, showed that per-capita income variable turned out to be insignificant either. Zemtsov and Baburin, on the contrary, register a higher disease incidence in rich regions, explaining this by the fact that population of rich regions travels more and has better opportunities for diagnosing the disease (Zemtsov and Baburin 2020).…”

Section: What Is Behind the Covid-19 Spread: Overview Of Studiesmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…In addition to population density, researchers use the indicator of the share or number of people living in large cities that shows an average frequency of social contacts in the region -it turns out to be positively associated with morbidity and excess mortality (Ivanov 2020;Zemtsov and Baburin 2020;Kolosnitsyna and Chubarov 2021). However, a study by Pilyasov et al based on data from the Russian regions failed to reveal any significant relationship between spread of the coronavirus and population density and the level of urbanization (Pilyasov et al 2021). Another study on the structure of excess mortality in Russia in 2020 demonstrated a faster increase in mortality among urban residents compared to rural residents (Sabgaida 2021).…”

Section: What Is Behind the Covid-19 Spread: Overview Of Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spread of COVID-19 in the Russian regions in 2020: factors of excess mortality

Kolosnitsyna

Chubarov

2022

POPECON

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The paper identifies major factors associated with the pandemic spread in the Russian regions, using econometric models and nonlinear «Random Forest» models to assess their significance. The study is based on data of the Russian regions for March-December 2020, a balanced panel sample included 780 observations. Prevalence of the pandemic was estimated based on the excess mortality rate. The study has identified a positive relationship between excess mortality and the share of migrants and a negative relationship between excess mortality and the share of pensioners in the region. Importance of climatic factors has been confirmed: high temperatures, other things being equal, reduce excess mortality, while high humidity, on the contrary, increases it. Excess mortality is higher in the regions with lower population mobility. Mortality is higher in the regions with high per capita incomes and regions with significant unemployment. Vice versa, excess mortality is lower in the regions with better doctor and nurse staffing levels. The study results show that in case of repeated waves of the epidemic or emergence of new viruses, public health policy should be geographically differentiated. Priority should be given to epidemiological situation in the regions with humid climate and low temperatures, high incomes, intensive migration, and high unemployment rates. Significant investments in medical education, higher number of medical specialists and their more even distribution across regions are required. This approach turns out to be more effective in terms of reducing mortality rather than restrictions on population mobility.

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Section: Discussion Of the Resultssupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussion Of the Resultscontrasting

confidence: 77%

Section: What Is Behind the Covid-19 Spread: Overview Of Studiesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: What Is Behind the Covid-19 Spread: Overview Of Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Spread of COVID-19 in the Russian regions in 2020: factors of excess mortality

Kolosnitsyna

Chubarov

2022

POPECON

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“…A number of other Russian publications that appeared a little later analyzed the diffusion of the pandemic, the factors of its spread, and considered the impact of the pandemic on the Russian economy in the regional context (Zemtsov and Baburin 2020b;Zubarevich and Safronov 2020;Pelyasov et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Features of Covid-2019 Diffusion in Russian Regions: the View of the Transport Geographer

Tarkhov

2022

GES

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The purpose of the article was to analyze the spatial spread of COVID-2019 in the regions of Russia in comparison with European countries in 2020–21 from a transport-geographical point of view. The article reveals interregional differences in the number of cases and the incidence (sickness) rate as of August 1, 2021 for individual regions of Russia. The coronavirus entered two Russian regions directly from Wuhan (China) and eight regions from Northern Italy. The first virus carriers arrived by air transport, which was the main means of spreading the epidemic. Spatial diffusion of COVID-2019 in Russia was extremely uneven with epicenters in the large cities. In the early stages the coronavirus spread in an exclusively hierarchical way through the established extensive air communication system. The later stages of its spread were characterized by mixed diffusion with the dominance of the hierarchical form. COVID-2019 has six gradations of the incidence (sickness) rate expressed in the number of cases per 1 million inhabitants: very high (more than 140), high (90–140), moderate (70–90), medium (45–70), low (20–45), very low (6–20). For the Russian regions the most typical were low (51 regions) and medium (20 regions) incidence rates – 60% and 23.5% (84% in total), respectively. The incidence rate, according to official data from Rospotrebnadzor (Russian Agency of Consumer Supervision), is 38% lower than in European countries. The average number of Russian cases in the first seven months of 2021 was 1.8 times more than for the entire 2020.

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