The State of Grain Trade between China and Russia: Analysis of Growth Effect and Its Influencing Factors

Abstract

As two influential countries in the global grain production and marketing system, China and Russia have increasingly strengthened their agricultural, economic, and trade cooperation. There are few papers that have considered trade relations from the perspective of the growth effect of grain exports, and it is necessary to fill this gap by systematically sorting the grain trade between the two countries and clarifying the growth effect and influencing factors in this paper. By comparing and analyzing the quantitative and structural characteristics of grain trade between China and Russia between 1996 and 2020, this study used the H–K marginal analysis method to explore the growth path and influencing factors of the export trade of grain products between China and Russia. The results show that the main driving force of the export growth of Russian and Chinese grain products is the price margin, which presents a growth pattern dominated by price and complemented by type and quantity. The empirical analysis of the gravity model shows that the size of the agricultural economy, grain productivity, trade cost, and economic shocks have significant impacts on bilateral trade. In view of this, the status of international agricultural cooperation between China and Russia will be further optimized if they can optimize trade policies to improve the quality of trade development, build cross-border cooperation parks to construct the layout of the whole industrial chain, strengthen infrastructure construction, and deepen and expand interconnectivity.

Agricultural Trade Effects of China’s Free Trade Zone Strategy: A Multidimensional Heterogeneity Perspective

“…This study employed the PSM-Staggered DID method for baseline regression. Columns (1), (2), and (3) in Table 2 respectively present the regression results on the effects of China's FTZ strategy on its agricultural trade, exports, and imports with partner countries. To address the issues of heteroscedasticity and the zeros inherent in traditional OLS regression, Columns (4) through (6) employ PPML with the high-dimensional fixed effects method for analysis.…”

“…International trade in agriculture allows for the redistribution of resources across regions and international boundaries, thus complementing any potential shortages in domestic food production, especially in the face of unpredictable factors such as natural disasters, climate change, or pandemics, thus ensuring the stability of the national food supply [1]. However, as multilateral trade negotiations on agricultural issues have stalled, China has been seeking new models and methods to promote agricultural trade [2], thereby gradually adopting the establishment of free trade zones (FTZs) as a significant approach to agricultural trade activities, thereby ensuring the effective supply of important agricultural products [3]. Since the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China first introduced the "implementation of the free trade zone strategy" in 2007, the "14th Five-Year Plan" has further emphasized the need to "construct a high-standard global network of FTZs, continuously enhancing China's new advantages in international economic cooperation and competition".…”

Correction: Fu, J.; Tong, G. The State of Grain Trade between China and Russia: Analysis of Growth Effect and Its Influencing Factors. Agriculture 2023, 13, 1407

“…In the published publication [1], there was an error regarding the affiliation for Jing Fu. In addition to affiliation 1, the updated affiliation should include: Center for Higher Education Research, Qiqihar University, Qiqihar 161000, China.…”