The State of the Stratosphere Throughout the Seasons: How Well Can Atmospheric Models Explain Infrasound Observations at Regional Distances?

Abstract

The stratosphere is the atmospheric layer with the strongest impact on long-range infrasound propagation. Natural and anthropogenic infrasound signals are efficiently ducted between refraction altitudes of 30 to 60 km and reflections on the ground and are thus propagated to infrasound receivers over long distances. The direction of favorable stratospheric ducting depends on the state of the atmosphere, primarily driven by the seasonal variation of stratospheric winds. This study uses a dataset of ground-truth infrasound events over two decades and all seasons to assess the station detectability and atmospheric model performance to correctly estimate according station observations and propagation conditions. From 2000 to 2019, the German Aerospace Center facility in Lampoldshausen has conducted ignition tests of the Ariane 5 main rocket engine. Out of the 159 engine tests considered in this study, 71 were observed at the infrasound array IS26 in the Bavarian forest, located eastward at 320 km distance. Observations were mostly made during wintertime, whereas reversed stratospheric wind patterns during summertime inhibited signal detections. A significant portion of wintertime non-detections however corresponded to stratospheric profiles that should enable signal observations. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model analyses and infrasound ray tracing only two-thirds of the non-detections could be explained by the existence of a near-station acoustic shadow zone. It must thus be concluded that the applied atmospheric model is more often than expected unable to correctly explain infrasound propagation and observation at regional distances.