The statistical presentation of seismicity for appreciating seismic hazard

Abstract

In seismically active mines, the engineer responsible must certify that the additional hazard from dynamic deformation will not cause the total work place risk of injury to be greater than the accepted norm, or is not in itself excessive. This duty requires the engineer to make sufficient, quantitative forecasts of the likelihood, and eventually consequence, of hazardous dynamic deformation and seismic events. Various methods are in use to calculate, or quantify, the dynamic and or seismic hazard in work places, but none encompass all of the classes of hazard. Few methods caution the user to consider the range of potential mechanisms of seismic hazard in a mine. A range of approaches and intuitive understanding of their limitations is needed if seismically active mines are to be made safer. This paper discusses a statistical method for the determination and representation of seismic hazard in mines to assist the engineer to appreciate dynamic rock related hazard levels. The intent is to highlight some methods of data presentation that make it easier for non-experts to appreciate evolving seismic risks in operating mines and to learn as much as possible about the stability of a mine by interrogating seismic data.