The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies

Arslanalp, Serkan; Simpson-Bell, Chima; Eichengreen, Barry

doi:10.5089/9798400204746.001

Cited by 44 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…[32] The significance of the national currency for the world economy is directly related to the place of the national economy in the global economy. The IMF indicates that in fact the share of US GDP (calculated at PPP) has a steady downward trend (about 16-17%), and the share of the dollar in world trade (less than 20% in global exports) is about 35% against 45% in 2013 [33]. This factor, together with the aggressive policy of sanctions pressure, will contribute to the gradual loss of the dollar's leading positions in the world.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polycentrism in International Relations and Globalization Processes

Perskaya¹

2023

Capitalism - Theories and Empirics in a New Dawn [Working Title]

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The development of the world economy in modern conditions is being transformed under the influence of a number of factors that are not only man-made but also due to the imperfection of the system of economic relations that have developed as a result of the absolutized denial of state regulation and attempts to replace it with supranational rules. The basic determinants were the recommendations of the Washington Consensus (1992), which were aimed at an attempt to ensure an accelerated transition to the market rails of the states of the transformational economy after the collapse of the USSR, and they extended to all developing economies. This led to the formation of the world capitalist economic system in the form of a pyramid. The economic globalization of the world economy is based on the internationalization of reproduction value chains. The main drivers of world globalization have become TNCs or MNEs, which have launched active activities in developing countries, de facto ignoring national legal norms, and pursuing solely the goal of making a profit. As a result, the world economy has received by now the highest degree of disproportionality in the incomes of the population in both developed and developing countries; population aging in developed economies, deindustrialization of developed economies, lack of social mobility for young people, climate change in African countries and the weakening of internal incentives for the development of national economies, as well as local wars, have led to an influx of nonregulated migration from Africa, which, for the most part, does not want to accept the rules of public life in the developed countries. The pandemic that disrupted the GVC contributed in no small part to the factor contributing to the transformation of the global economy, and the introduction of unilateral and large-scale sanctions, including secondary ones—to an acceleration of the transition to polycentrism. Polycentrism is based on ensuring the full-fledged sovereignty of the state, the fulfillment of its international obligations, noninterference in the internal affairs of foreign states, and the formation of more equal conditions for international cooperation. The marginal prices for Russian oil or natural gas trade was an indicator of an attempt to introduce a command-administrative model into world trade under capitalism, thereby undermining its basic foundation—competition. Capitalism in the twenty-first century should also be based on private property and the inviolability of its legal basis, the inviolability of private property, the development of fair competition, including at the interstate level, on the basis of reaching a consensus of interests, on the need to promote the alignment of development levels in the world community, stimulating and supporting entrepreneurship in developing countries, including helping to implement the principles of responsible business conduct, but not imposing their social-mental or spiritual values on them as the basis of the socioeconomic formation of social development. It is polycentrism in international relations that makes it possible, while preserving the foundations of the capitalist economic model, to ensure the progressive development of national economies that use their competitive advantages on a global scale.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polycentrism in International Relations and Globalization Processes

Perskaya¹

2023

Capitalism - Theories and Empirics in a New Dawn [Working Title]

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“…The only seeming exception is to be found in the currency composition of centralbank reserves, where the greenback's market share appears to have drifted down noticeably since the turn of the century. Prominent experts make much of the fact that the dollar share of reserves most recently has been some 12 percentage points lower than it was at the start of the new millennium (Arslanalp et al 2022). In reality, however, the change is far less dramatic than suggested.…”

Section: Official Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our conclusion, overall, remains much the same as before. Despite some hints of minor erosion (Arslanalp et al 2022), the greenback remains as dominant as ever. A cluster of smaller currencies have begun to compete for attention, but multipolarity in any meaningful sense has still not arrived.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The international currency system revisited

2022

ROKE

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What does the international currency system really look like? Since World War II, the US dollar has prevailed as the international community's one truly global money. The currency system could loosely be described as unipolar, practically a monopoly. Is that still true? Opinions are sharply divided. Close to a decade ago the authors sought to resolve the issue with a detailed empirical analysis stretching back over a quarter of a century. Their conclusion was that loose talk of an increasingly multipolar currency system was at best premature. In reality, they could find few signs of significant change in the competitive structure of the system over the years under review. While acknowledging that a future of multipolarity could yet arrive, they saw no evidence that anything like that had happened yet. The aim of this paper is to extend the authors' previous analysis forward to encompass another decade. Their conclusion, overall, remains much the same as before. Despite some hints of minor erosion, the dollar remains as dominant as ever. A cluster of smaller currencies have begun to compete for attention, but multipolarity in any meaningful sense has still not arrived. The greenback still reigns supreme.

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“…Согласно данным МВФ, доля доллара в валютных резервах центральных банков уменьшилась с 71% в 1999 г. до 59% в 2021 г. [11]. Эта лишь одна из тенденций в формировании альтернатив американоцентричным механизмам глобального управления.…”

Section: остриё финансового удара направлено против золотовалютных ре...unclassified

U.S. Sanctions Policy against Russia: Historical Experience and Contemporary Landscape

2022

USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture

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Экономическое принуждение уже многие десятилетия является неотъемлемой частью внешнеполитической стратегии США. Санкции, торговые эмбарго, ограничения в сфере финансов и технологий давно используются США как инструмент давления на государства, которые не подчиняются американскому диктату. Оставшись единственной сверх-державой после окончания холодной войны, Соединённые Штаты расширили практику применения санкционных мер. Американская санкционная политика имеет ряд уникальных особенностей, благодаря которым в сферу её действия оказываются вовлечёнными практически все государства западного сообщества. Беспрецедентный характер нынешних американских санкций против РФ во многом объясняется тем, что российская политика воспринимается Вашингтоном как системный вызов доминированию США, требующий решительного отпора.

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The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies

Abstract: Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, o r IMF management.

Cited by 44 publications

References 28 publications

Polycentrism in International Relations and Globalization Processes

Polycentrism in International Relations and Globalization Processes

The international currency system revisited

U.S. Sanctions Policy against Russia: Historical Experience and Contemporary Landscape

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