2022
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022
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The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability

Abstract: Abstract. Large-scale, intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability of the stratosphere is reviewed. Much of the variability is dynamical and induced by waves emanating from the troposphere. It is largely characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the polar vortex in winter and a quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial winds. Existing theories for the variability are generally formulated in terms of wave–mean-flow interactions, with refinements due, in part, to teleconnections between the tropics and … Show more

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Cited by 22 publications
(12 citation statements)
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“…Correlations in Figure 5 are strongest around 30 hPa, which is roughly the same height at which the relative strength of the QBO signal in the ensemble mean is a maximum (Figure 4b) and coincides with a peak in amplitude of the ozone QBO (Figure 1). For ERA5 the correlations describe the observed relationship between the dynamical and ozone QBOs (1979–2014 CMIP6 ozone follows observations) with QBO anomalies in ozone and temperature resulting from vertical advection by the induced secondary meridional circulation that maintains thermal wind balance and causes temperature and wind anomalies to vary in quadrature (Butchart, 2022). Because temperature and ozone amounts both increase vertically up to the ozone maximum in the mid‐stratosphere, their QBO anomalies have the same sign below 20 hPa.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Correlations in Figure 5 are strongest around 30 hPa, which is roughly the same height at which the relative strength of the QBO signal in the ensemble mean is a maximum (Figure 4b) and coincides with a peak in amplitude of the ozone QBO (Figure 1). For ERA5 the correlations describe the observed relationship between the dynamical and ozone QBOs (1979–2014 CMIP6 ozone follows observations) with QBO anomalies in ozone and temperature resulting from vertical advection by the induced secondary meridional circulation that maintains thermal wind balance and causes temperature and wind anomalies to vary in quadrature (Butchart, 2022). Because temperature and ozone amounts both increase vertically up to the ozone maximum in the mid‐stratosphere, their QBO anomalies have the same sign below 20 hPa.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Anomalous events included in external forcings, such as the Krakatoa eruption, are another source of coherence as these can cause an alignment of the QBO phases across realizations for some models (e.g., UKESM1-0-LL, as noted above), followed by a period of coherence resulting from the QBO's predictability. However, given current knowledge of the QBO's predictability timescale (Butchart, 2022;Pohlmann et al, 2019;Scaife et al, 2014;Stockdale et al, 2022) it is difficult to identify sufficient similar anomalous forcing events between 1850 and 2014 to produce the longer duration episodes of coherence seen in Figure 3. Another possible explanation for coherence is a tendency for QBO phases to synchronize with the annual cycle (Hampson & Haynes, 2004;Rajendran et al, 2018) and thereby align across multiple realizations from the same model.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…The downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies and the effects on surface patterns have been studied thoroughly since then, in particular, for the most dramatic stratospheric phenomenon, the Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) (e.g. Charlton-Perez et al, 2018;Afargan-Gerstman and Domeisen, 2020;Baldwin et al, 2021;Butchart, 2022). This downward response is well reproduced in model studies and is known to potentially contribute to surface predictability (e.g.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…
The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (hereafter referred to as the polar vortex) is a highly variable feature of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation during winter. Variability in the polar vortex is driven by a competition between slower radiative cooling and faster dynamical perturbations due to planetary-scale Rossby waves propagating upward from the troposphere (Butchart, 2022;Tian et al, 2023). In extreme cases, this interaction between the vortex and waves can lead to a dramatic weakening of the polar vortex with a reversal of the climatological westerlies (Baldwin et al, 2021;Quiroz, 1975;Scherhag, 1952;Schoeberl, 1978).
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mentioning
confidence: 99%