The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on midlatitude climate

Nakamura, Tetsu; Yamazaki, Koji; Iwamoto, Katsushi; Honda, Meiji; Miyoshi, Y.; Ogawa, Y.; Tomikawa, Yoshihiro; Ukita, Jinro

doi:10.1002/2016gl068330

Cited by 137 publications

(150 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The work by Sun et al (2015) showed that changes in sea ice can impact the midto-upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric circulation in an idealized model. This is supported by the results of Peings and Magnusdottir (2014), Kim et al (2014) and Nakamura et al (2016), among others, who identified a connection with the stratosphere. However, such studies were largely concerned with the response to low sea ice and did not explicitly consider the causes of low sea ice in the first instance.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Atmospheric precursors of and response to anomalous Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 models

Kelleher

Screen

2017

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents-Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.Key words: sea ice-atmosphere coupling, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, atmospheric circulation, Eurasian climate Citation: Kelleher, M., and J. Screen, 2018: Atmospheric precursors of and response to anomalous Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 models. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35(1), 27-37, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7039-9.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Atmospheric precursors of and response to anomalous Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 models

Kelleher

Screen

2017

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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“…The enhanced wave amplitude can lead to more poleward energy transport (Peixoto and Oort, ; Lee et al ., ), which in turn can weaken the mid‐latitude/Arctic thermal contrast. Not only limited in the troposphere, the enhanced upward propagating planetary‐scale waves may further penetrate into the stratosphere and decelerate the westerly in the stratosphere (Kim et al ., ; Sun et al ., ; Nakamura et al ., ).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in winter stationary wave activity during weak mid‐latitude and Arctic thermal contrast period

Wang

Nath

Chen

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Using reanalysis data set, this study investigates the changes in winter mean stationary wave activity, when the thermal contrast between mid‐latitude and Arctic is weak. The mid‐latitude and Arctic thermal contrast was stronger during 1986–2003 and weaker during 1966–1985 and 2004–2017. The changes in stationary wave characteristics are studied based on the stationary wave activity flux (SWAF). Compare to the period when the contrast was stronger (1986–2003), both the convergence of SWAF and stationary wave amplitude have been enhanced in the Northern part of Eurasia during the periods 1966–1985 and 2004–2017. We further proposed that a weak mid‐latitude/Arctic thermal contrast provides a good condition for the enhancement of the stationary wave activity. The weak mid‐latitude‐Arctic thermal contrast is conducive to the enhancement of blocking frequency around Ural Mountains, which may contribute partly to the increase in stationary wave amplitude and associated changes in the SWAF. Furthermore, the weak thermal contrast is associated with the decrease in baroclinicity and synoptic‐scale eddy activity, which in turn contributes to the generation of stationary waves via eddy feedback processes.

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“…It is unclear whether low-top models are able to properly represent the stratospheric pathway through which autumn sea ice can affect the winter circulation (Nakamura et al, 2016;Sun et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2017Zhang et al, , 2018. It is unclear whether low-top models are able to properly represent the stratospheric pathway through which autumn sea ice can affect the winter circulation (Nakamura et al, 2016;Sun et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2017Zhang et al, , 2018.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Autumn Compared to That in Winter on the Atmospheric Circulation

Blackport

Screen

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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There is growing evidence that Arctic sea ice loss affects the large‐scale atmospheric circulation. Some studies suggest that reduced autumn sea ice may be a precursor to severe midlatitude winters. Here we use coupled ocean–atmosphere model experiments to investigate the extent to which the winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss is driven by sea ice loss in preceding months. We impose different seasonal cycles of sea ice by using various combinations of sea ice albedo parameters. Year‐round sea ice loss causes an equatorward migration of the eddy‐driven jet and a shift toward the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. However, these circulation changes are not found when sea ice is reduced only in late summer and autumn, despite high‐latitude warming persisting into the winter. Our results imply that the winter atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss is primarily driven by sea ice loss in winter rather than in autumn.

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The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on midlatitude climate

Cited by 137 publications

References 37 publications

Atmospheric precursors of and response to anomalous Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 models

Atmospheric precursors of and response to anomalous Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 models

Changes in winter stationary wave activity during weak mid‐latitude and Arctic thermal contrast period

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Autumn Compared to That in Winter on the Atmospheric Circulation

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