The strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: A review

Nalau, Johanna; Cobb, Gemma

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102527

Cited by 41 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 106 publications

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“…It is plausible that more interactive and immersive approaches may be more effective in reducing the psychological distance of climate change. These include, for example, the co-production and co-development of interactive 3D visualisations [23,71] and virtual reality experiences [72]. Interactive and/or more immersive approaches to visualisation are, however, likely to be both more costly and difficult to scale-up due to the need for contextualisation and specialist equipment.…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Using virtual simulations of future extreme weather events to communicate climate change risk

et al. 2023

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Virtual simulations of future extreme weather events may prove an effective vehicle for climate change risk communication. To test this, we created a 3D virtual simulation of a future tropical cyclone amplified by climate change. Using an experimental framework, we isolated the effect of our simulation on risk perceptions and individual mitigation behaviour for a representative sample (n = 1507) of the general public in Hong Kong. We find that exposure to our simulation is systematically associated with a relatively small decrease in risk perceptions and individual mitigation behaviour. We suggest that this is likely due to climate change scepticism, motivation crowding, geographical and temporal distance, high-risk thresholds, feelings of hopelessness, and concerns surrounding the immersiveness of the virtual simulation.

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Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Using virtual simulations of future extreme weather events to communicate climate change risk

et al. 2023

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“…Adaptation is about those actions we can do today in response to observed changes and to prepare for future changes (Nalau & Cobb, 2022). Conservation adaptation frameworks often focus on the content of adaptation, or what adaptation actions need to be taken.…”

Section: Adap Tation and Future-oriented Cons Ervationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But despite an increased enthusiasm for anticipatory adaptation, there is an overall lack of practical recommendations for its implementation (McLaughlin et al, 2022), including necessary skills for envisioning desired futures, how different actors perceive and construct the future (Nalau & Cobb, 2022) or the multiple desired visions of nature (Pereira et al, 2020).…”

Section: Future-oriented Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

Múnera‐Roldán,

Colloff,

van Kerkhoff

et al. 2023

People and Nature

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Protected areas are central for long‐term conservation of biodiversity and can potentially support climate change mitigation. But protected areas are also affected by climate change. Managers and scientists are increasingly facing the difficult task of making decisions under rapid change. Understanding individual and institutional futures considerations for adaptation is fundamental to evaluate whether protected area governance is adequate to anticipate, prepare and respond to climate change. Using mixed qualitative methods, we analysed adaptation narratives extracted from 51 semi‐structured interviews with conservation practitioners and scientists involved in protected area management in Australia, Colombia and South Africa. We applied a multidimensional model to examine how people make sense of the concept of adaptation. The model allowed us to evaluate how different actors perceive and conceptualise the future and their level of awareness of climate change impacts on values of protected areas, as reflected in the expectations and motivations behind adaptation actions. The results show a plurality of adaptation concepts and approaches. The narratives are framed under different governance approaches (top‐down, bottom‐up, participatory) influencing the sense of agency, the rationale for adaptation (adaptation of what and for whom) and the level of acceptance of change. Action time is associated with preferences and actions in response to ecological change, with more proactive action linked with systemic approaches. We propose that examining world views underpinning how individuals and institutions make sense of the concept of adaptation can support future‐oriented conservation practices despite the inherent uncertainty of climate change. The narratives presented here may provide a basis to facilitate deliberations about current practices and identify potential contradictions between individual and collective aspirations for adaptation to create pathways for collective action towards desired futures. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

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“…One strategy is having people imagine their future selves, i.e., episodic future thinking (see Kaplan et al, 2016 ). Nalau and Cobb ( 2022 ) describe a variety of future visioning manipulations designed to increase engagement on climate change. Other tools for reducing discounting of climate impacts are films and stories.…”

Section: Climate-change Warnings As Ineffective Rulesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rule-Governed Behavior and Climate Change: Why Climate Warnings Fail to Motivate Sufficient Action

Pietras

2022

Behav. Soc. Iss.

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Climate scientists warn of dire consequences for ecological systems and human well-being if significant steps to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken immediately. Despite these warnings, greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, indicating that current responses are inadequate. Climate warnings and reactions to them may be analyzed in terms of rules and rule-governed behavior. The literature on rule-governed behavior in behavior analysis has identified a variety of factors that can reduce rule following, including insufficient rule exposure, insufficient learning history and rule complexity, incomplete rules, instructed behavior not sufficiently learned, rules having weak function-altering effects, conflicting rules, lack of speaker credibility, rule plausibility and inconsistency with prior learning, and insufficient reinforcement for rule following. The present paper aims to analyze how these factors might impact responses to climate change, and possible solutions and strategies are discussed. Much of the theory and research on climate-change communication has come from outside of behavior analysis. Thus, the paper also aims to integrate findings from this literature with a behavior-analytic approach to rule control. Interpreting climate warnings and climate solutions in terms of rule-governed behavior may improve our understanding of why such rules are not more effective, and aid in the development of verbal and nonverbal strategies for changing behavior and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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The strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: A review

Cited by 41 publications

References 106 publications

Using virtual simulations of future extreme weather events to communicate climate change risk

Using virtual simulations of future extreme weather events to communicate climate change risk

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

Rule-Governed Behavior and Climate Change: Why Climate Warnings Fail to Motivate Sufficient Action

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