The Structural Analysis of Driving Forces to Adaptive Capacity with Climate Change in Ahvaz City. Iran

Abstract

Climate change is an increasing concern for national and local governments around the world. The severity of the natural disasters affected by these changes has led to negative impacts on various economic, social and environmental dimensions in cities. One of the important global strategies in responding to the adverse effects of climate change is the adaptation strategy. The aim of this study is to identification and structural modeling of driving forces for adaptation to climate change according to the special geography of Ahvaz city as a strategic city in southwest of Iran. After identifying the factors and indicators through the study of records and a survey of the elite group, analysis and stratification was done using the combined ISM-DEMATEL model and finally the main driving forces of adapting to climate change in Ahvaz were identified by Mic-Mac Structural Model. The research findings have shown: among the five economic, social, institutional, physical and technological factors, the economy has known as the most effective factor in adapting to climate change in Ahvaz. Also, among the 44 selected indicators, 10 important driving forces were selected that 6 driving forces, have the economic and social background. Based on cross-impact analysis by Mic-Mac; the financial support for vulnerable groups, business improvement, alleviation poverty measures, diversification of economic activities, social cohesion and social trust to government were recognized as the main drivers of Ahvaz city's adaptation to climate change.