The stubbornness of authoritarianism: autocracy-to-autocracy transitions in the world between 2000 and 2015

Abstract

Whilst much of the contemporary debate on regime change remains concentrated on transitions to and from democracy, this paper focuses on autocracy-to-autocracy transitions, a relatively understudied but particularly relevant phenomenon. Building on an updated typology of non-democratic regimes and through a qualitative case-by-case assessment, the present paper identifies 21 transitions from one dictatorship to another, out of 32 cases of autocratic breakdown during the 2000–15 period. Hence, after the fall of a dictatorship, the installation of a new authoritarian regime was almost twice as likely as democratization. Accordingly, the paper focuses on the 21 recorded autocracy-to-autocracy transitions and examines in which non-democratic regimes a transition from an autocracy to another is more likely to occur, which peculiar forms of authoritarian rule tend to be installed, and the specific ways in which the dismantling of the previous existing authoritarian rule is achieved.

Leadership succession in politics: The democracy/autocracy divide revisited

“…In autocratic contexts, major alternations in power usually mark the end of a regime, though the old regime is by no means certain to be succeeded by a more democratic regime (see Geddes et al, 2014, 2018: 211–217). In fact, of the 32 cases of autocratic breakdown identified by Del Panto for the period 2000–2015, no less than 21 transitions led to the installation of a new autocratic regime (Del Panto, 2019).…”

Authoritarian resurgence: towards a unified analytical framework

“…Even this distinction remains open to interpretation, however, if we consider the case of Myanmar, in which the 2015 elections have marked a change of government, if in the context of a broader strategy of authoritarian resilience orchestrated by the military. Moreover, the sample of 21st century autocracy-to-autocracy transitions that Del Panta (2019) analyses include a few events that could be alternatively classified as failed democratic transitions (e.g. Egypt) and autocratization (e.g.…”

“…Based on a similar cross-regional approach, the article of Gianni Del Panta (2019) deals with autocracy-to-autocracy transitions. Building on an updated typology of non-democratic regimes and through a qualitative case-by-case assessment, Del Panta (2019) tracks 21 such events occurred between 2000 and 2015, noticing that the replacement of an authoritarian government with another is a more frequent outcome than democratization.…”

“…Based on a similar cross-regional approach, the article of Gianni Del Panta (2019) deals with autocracy-to-autocracy transitions. Building on an updated typology of non-democratic regimes and through a qualitative case-by-case assessment, Del Panta (2019) tracks 21 such events occurred between 2000 and 2015, noticing that the replacement of an authoritarian government with another is a more frequent outcome than democratization. Hence, Del Panta (2019) examines which non-democratic regimes are more likely to experience these processes of change, what forms of authoritarian rule are more frequently installed as a consequence of them, and the prevailing ways in which authoritarian elites' turnovers occur.…”

“…Concerning authoritarian ruling élite turnovers, an autocracy-to-autocracy transition occurs when the ruling elite of an existing authoritarian regime is replaced by a new but similarly authoritarian elite. Consistently with the focus on ruling elite changes (Brownlee et al ., 2015), in his contribution to this special issue Del Panta (2019) considers a relatively broad range of autocracy-to-autocracy transitions. In this regard, it should be noted that sometimes these elite-level transitions lead to a change in the institutions that characterize the political regime, but this is not necessarily the case.…”