The Study of Democratization and the Arab Spring*

Abstract

This paper proposes and illustrates a framework for analysis of the recent events in Middle Eastern and North African countries (the so-called Arab Spring) by bringing into dialogue recent theoretical advances in democratization theory with the comparative-historical literature on the political development of the MENA region. We advocate two analytical shifts from conventional approaches in the analysis of the Arab Spring: first, reconsider the temporalities of democratization processes; second, focus on struggles over specific institutional arenas rather than over the regime as a whole. The former recommendation draws attention both to the strategies used by key actors in the political, economic, and civil society spheres, and to the historical legacies that built the influence and resources of these actors over time. The latter allows us to consider the institutional safeguards for old elites that are likely to be included in the post-authoritarian regimes emerging in the region. Even though some of these safeguards are clearly anti-democratic, historical examples show that they do not necessarily preclude democratization. Indeed, in some cases, their introduction might be necessary to achieve democratic openings in other arenas. We illustrate these theoretical points with reference to the case of Egypt.

Demystifying How Constitutions Are Made – External Actors’ Modes of Actions in the 2014 Tunisian Constitution

“…", this paper draws on a method of social science to answer this legal question: a qualitative case derstudied by democratization scholars. 357 If the scope of external actors' action varies according to different contexts, Tunisia, by its geopolitical location and variety of actors involved, offers a picture not only of how constitution-making functions as a development enterprise, but also the different modes of action that are used by external actors in different settings. 358…”

Crises and critical junctures in authoritarian regimes: addressing uprisings’ temporalities and discontinuities

“…unlike in the social movement literature (Jasper and Volpi 2018), from an institutionalist perspective, less attention is paid to how new actors become relevant actors -a tendency that is compensated by a greater focus on the novel decisions taken by known actors in new circumstances. Ahmed and Capoccia (2014) illustrate this point in their analysis of the 2011 Arab uprisings in egypt. The focus of their explanation is on the crucial role played by an established Islamist organisation (Muslim Brotherhood) and workers' unions.…”

Critical Junctures of Securitisation: The Case of the AK Party in Turkey

“…The study of these junctures enables us to understand the point at which key processes and transformations start in the political history of a region or country. For example, Ahmed and Capoccia (2014) and Volpi and Gerschewski (2020) applied critical junctures theory to the Arab uprisings, Scully (2017) used it in his study of Chilean politics and Mahoney (2022) employed it to explain regime change in Central America. Öztürk (2021) scrutinised the importance of the critical junctures of Turkish domestic politics through the country’s Balkan relations.…”