The study of human monkeypox disease in 2022 using the epidemic models: herd immunity and the basic reproduction number case

Abstract

As of May 2022, a new outbreak of the human monkeypox (MPOX) disease appeared in multiple countries, where the 2022 human MPOX disease spread to more than 109 cases, excluding the suspected cases up to the end of 2022. The deaths of the 2022 human MPOX exceeded 200 cases up to the same date. The human MPOX is not a new disease, this disease was once endemic in some countries on the African continent. Despite this, this disease began to spread in a number of countries around the world in 2022. The first case of the 2022 human MPOX was recorded in the United Kingdom in May. After that date, this disease began to become a pandemic in a number of other countries, such as the United States, Spain, and Brazil. The 2022 human MPOX is a type of viral disease caused by a viral virus, the MPOX virus, and this virus causes rashes and lesions over the skin of the patient, as well as in the mouth of the patient. Multiple effective indicators are employed for the study of the 2022 of the human MPOX, such as the herd immunity of the human MPOX (HIhMPOX), the basic reproduction number of the human MPOX (BRNhMPOX), and the infection period of the human MPOX. This study focuses on the study of the herd immunity of, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 outbreak of human MPOX in multiple countries around the world. This study employed the semianalytical method of the Susceptible compartment S, Infectious compartment I, Recovered compartment R (SIR) pandemic model including the mortality for the study of the herd immunity, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease. It is found that the average value of the herd immunity for the human MPOX disease in 2022 equals to 0.2194, that is, 21.94% for multiple countries, and equals to 35.52% for the United States, and 30.99% for Spain. Also, it is found that the average value of the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease equals to 1.2810 for multiple countries. It is concluded from these values that 21.94% of the total susceptible population has to be immunized in an effective way to prevent the spreading of the disease. Also, based on the previous values, it is concluded that the status of the 2022 MPOX disease is spreading as a pandemic.

Simulating the impact of optimized prevention and control measures on the transmission of monkeypox in the United States: A model‐based study

“…Firstly, our simulation results showed that the diagnosis rate, and recovery rate to be 2.73, which is similar to previous research results. 5,[28][29][30] An R 0 value greater than 1 indicates that the disease is still in an uncontrollable state. 31 Compared to previous monkeypox outbreaks in the United States, the 2022 outbreak spread more widely, with more complex transmission pathways and greater difficulty in prevention and control.…”

Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight

“…We further include the current global trend as a function of time for 2022, as shown in Figure 4b. We next go through current modelling literature on the 2022 epidemic, and how modelling is bringing further mechanistic insight into mpox dynamics.

Figure 4. (a) Schematic of basic SIR model with standard incidence, similar as used to model mpox dynamics for the 2022 pandemic [50, 59]. (b) Global reported mpox cases as a function of weeks for the year 2022.

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The end of the Monkeypox emergency: Reasons behind the lack of new cases reported in Italy

“…4 Another explanation for the drastic reduction of new MPXV diagnoses can be related to herd immunity induced by natural infection. A recent analysis 5 affirms that about 22% of the total susceptible population has to be immunized in an effective way to prevent the spreading of the MPXV, F I G U R E 1 Larger, partially scratched, umbilicated, vesiculo-pustular lesion and several smaller satellite pustules at the pubis and base of the patient's penis (a). Dermoscopy of the larger lesion shows an easily bleeding excoriation, with discontinuous white peripheral halo and perilesional erythema (b), while dermoscopy of one of the smaller satellite pustules revealed a whitish structureless area, with a brownish central depression (c).…”