The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran

Abarghouei, Hossein Bari; Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi; Dastorani, Mohammad Taghi; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Zarch, Mehdi Safari

doi:10.1007/s00477-011-0491-7

Cited by 63 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (Kendall 1975;Mann 1945) was conducted to determine whether the trend of the regression line was significant, which was widely used for trend detection due to its robustness for non-normally distributed data (Belle and Hughes 1984;Partal and Kahya 2006;Abarghouei et al 2011;Liu et al 2011). For a given data series composed of X 1 , X 2 …X n , their ranks are R 1 , R 2 … R n , and the Mann--Kendall rank statistic (S) is calculated as:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Yellow River basin becomes wetter or drier? The case as indicated by mean precipitation and extremes during 1961–2012

Liang

Liu

Bai

et al. 2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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The Yellow River basin could be divided into three sub-regions, which makes it as the ideal target for studying regional climate change. On the basis of daily precipitation at 62 meteorological stations in the Yellow River basin, spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and monthly mean precipitation and extremes were analyzed during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall trend test and linear least-square method were used to detect trends and magnitudes in annual and monthly mean precipitation and extremes. The results indicate that mean precipitation and extremes have different trends, and the three sub-regions also have distinct trends.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Yellow River basin becomes wetter or drier? The case as indicated by mean precipitation and extremes during 1961–2012

Liang

Liu

Bai

et al. 2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Among these approaches, the nonparametric MannKendall test proposed by Mann (1945) and improved by Kendall (1975) has been employed to test trends in hydrological processes owing to its capability of handling non-normality and seasonality (Gan 1998). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test has also been an efficient tool to detect the monotonic trend of hydro-meteorological variables (Xu et al 2002(Xu et al , 2003Zhang et al 2009;Abarghouei et al 2011) which is recommended by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (Zhao et al 2007). Hamed (2008) proposed a modified Mann-Kendall trend test taking scaling of the data into consideration to avoid contradictions found in many trend analysis studies, such as local or regional inconsistency.…”

Section: Nonparametric Mann-kendall Test For Monotonic Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal variation and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the Taihu Basin, China

Liu

Huang

2011

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Long-term trend and abrupt changes of major climate variables in the Taihu Basin were investigated based on the mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine duration at six meteorological stations from 1954 to 2006. Results showed that the longterm trend for annual precipitation was not statistically significant during the past 53 years, but a wetter tendency was detected and the increasing centre for annual precipitation was located in the southeast of the study area. Mean air temperature has increased by 1.43°C, similar trends were also identified for maximum and minimum air temperature, which have increased by 1.06 and 1.54°C, respectively, while DTR exhibited a slight decreasing trend with a rate of about -0.09°C/(10 year). The annual mean relative humidity and sunshine duration exhibited a decreasing trend, with Kendall slope values of -0.99%/10 year and -7.797 h/10 year, respectively. Examination of long-range dependence showed that all climate variables exhibited strong persistence at annual scale except minimum air temperature. Detection of abrupt changes using nonparametric Mann-Kendall and Pettitt methods showed different results. Abrupt changes occurred in the 1980s and 2000s for annual precipitation using the nonparametric MannKendall method, while no abrupt changes were detected using the Pettitt method. Abrupt changes of temperature and relative humidity took place in the early 1990s using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall method, which occurred in the late and mid 1980s using the Pettitt method, while abrupt changes of sunshine duration and DTR detected by two methods occurred in the similar period. The result will be helpful for local flood control and drought relief in urban planning and construction under future global climate change.

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“…In reviewing the recent literature, the most common methods to detect trends were the bootstrap analysis (Douglas et al 2000;Yue and Hashino 2003;Bonaccorso et al 2005;Cannarozzo et al 2006;Burn et al 2010), regression analysis (Cheung et al 2008;Tabari and Talaee 2011;Miao et al 2012); and the non-parametric methods (Becker et al 2006;Cannarozzo et al 2006;Modarres and da Silva 2007;Basistha et al 2009;de Lima et al 2010;Bari Abarghouei et al 2011;Ahani et al 2012;Tabari et al 2015a). It was found from the literature, that the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test is the most extensively applied method in the detection of trends (Hamed 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Precipitation trend analysis using discrete wavelet transform at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

Palizdan

Falamarzi

Huang

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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The main purpose of this study was to determine the most dominant periodic components that affect the annual and seasonal precipitation trends in each homogenous rainfall region in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia for the period 1982-2011. Performing this research could be essential because in the previous studies on detection of trend in Malaysia, the details of variations of different time scales and the periodic responsible for the observed trends were not investigated. Using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) coupled with Mann-Kendall at the regional scale for the first time particularly in the context of Malaysia is the contribution of this study. In order to form the homogenous rainfall regions, first the total annual and seasonal precipitation in each year was spatialized into 5 km 9 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting method. The obtained precipitation series for the grids were then grouped applying the Ward's clustering method based on the similarity of precipitation time series. After allocating a cluster number to each grid, the boundary of the regions was formed in ArcGIS software. Following which, in each homogenous region the areal precipitation series were computed by the Thiessen polygon method. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to detect trend and the DWT coupled with the MK test and the sequential MK analysis were then utilized in order to find out the time scale which affected the observed trend in each homogenous region. On annual scale, it was found that D 1 (plus approximation) component in regions Annual Cluster1 (AC1) and AC2 was the periodic mode responsible for trends. On seasonal scale, in regions Northeast monsoon Cluster 1 (NC1), NC3, SC1 and Southwest monsoon Cluster 2 (SC2), D 1 (with approximation), in regions NC4, Inter monsoon 1 Cluster 1 (I1C1), I1C2, Inter monsoon 2 Cluster 1 I2C1 and I2C2, Detail 2 (D 2 ) (plus approximation) and in region NC2, Detail 3 (D 3 ) (with approximation added) component were the most influential periodicity for trends.

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The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran

Cited by 63 publications

References 28 publications

The Yellow River basin becomes wetter or drier? The case as indicated by mean precipitation and extremes during 1961–2012

The Yellow River basin becomes wetter or drier? The case as indicated by mean precipitation and extremes during 1961–2012

Spatio-temporal variation and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the Taihu Basin, China

Precipitation trend analysis using discrete wavelet transform at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

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