The Survival Rate and Its Predictors in HIV-Infected Patients of Kurdistan Province, Iran: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p><jats:bold>Objective:</jats:bold> This study aimed to understand the prognostic factors that influence the progress and death in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) / acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients in developing countries. This study conducted in the Kurdistan Province, Iran from September 1988 to April 2020. Interest outcomes were time-estimated: (1) from HIV to AIDS and (2) from AIDS to death. The Cox proportional-hazard model also was used in order to consider the effects of different factors on survival rate.<jats:bold>Results:</jats:bold> A total number of 591 HIV-infected patients were assessed and the results showed that 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year probability of disease progression from HIV diagnosis to AIDS was 96%, 92%, and 88%, and that of death was 69%, 47%, and 27%, respectively. Cox’s multivariate analysis result's showed the following factors were significantly related to AIDS progression: the first CD4 count under 500, using ART, and history of drug use with hazard ratio of 1.93, 4.53, and 0.76, respectively. The mortality was significantly associated with unemployment, using ART with HR of 3.4, and 0.07, respectively. Unemployed AIDS-patients are also more likely to die; this, which need more attention in Iran.</jats:p>