The Techno-Economic Potential of Offshore Wind Energy with Optimized Future Turbine Designs in Europe

Abstract

Renewable energy sources will play a central role in the sustainable energy systems of the future. Scenario analyses of such hypothesized energy systems require sound knowledge of the techno-economic potential of renewable energy technologies. Although there have been various studies concerning the potential of offshore wind energy, higher spatial resolution, as well as the future design concepts of offshore wind turbines, has not yet been addressed in sufficient detail. Here, we aim to overcome this gap by applying a high spatial resolution to the three main aspects of offshore wind potential analysis, namely ocean suitability, the simulation of wind turbines and cost estimation. A set of constraints is determined that reveal the available areas for turbine placement across Europe’s maritime boundaries. Then, turbine designs specific to each location are selected by identifying turbines with the cheapest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), restricted to capacities, hub heights and rotor diameters of between 3-20 MW, 80-200 m and 80-280 m, respectively. Ocean eligibility and turbine design are then combined to distribute turbines across the available areas. Finally, LCOE trends are calculated from the individual turbine costs, as well as the corresponding capacity factor obtained by hourly simulation with wind speeds from 1980 to 2017. The results of cost-optimal turbine design reveal that the overall potential for offshore wind energy across Europe will constitute nearly 8.6 TW and 40.0 PWh at roughly 7 €ct kWh-1 average LCOE by 2050. Averaged design parameters at national level are provided in an appendix.

Trade-Offs between Geographic Scale, Cost, and Infrastructure Requirements for Fully Renewable Electricity in Europe

“…For this, future electricity supply will be based largely, or entirely, on renewable sources. 1 Although ambitious, this is possible because solar and wind generation technologies are mature, 2,3 their generation potential is sufficient, [4][5][6][7][8] various options are available to balance variable renewable generation on time scales ranging from hours to years, [9][10][11] and systems relying on them can have similar cost as today's system. 2,[12][13][14] As renewables are abundantly available across the continent, very different kinds of future electricity system designs are possible, from a Europe-wide electricity grid sharing generation resources among all countries, to myriads of locally self-sufficient units, either disconnected or with limited interconnection, as well as combinations of these two extremes.…”

Supply-side options to reduce land requirements of fully renewable electricity in Europe

“…Third, with potential estimations as large as 40,000 TWh/yr (~10 times current electricity demand) [ 56 ] or even 50,000 TWh/yr [ 57 ], the potential of offshore wind to reduce land requirements is not questioned by previous findings in the literature.…”

Occurrence of Variable Renewable Energy System Generation Lulls in a Future European Capacity Scenario

“…Figure 1 provides an overview of the installed wind and PV capacities in the E-Highway 2050's "100% RES" scenario. As the simulation schemes used to produce these generation profiles have previously been discussed by Ryberg et al [15] for onshore wind, Caglayan et al [16] for offshore wind, and finally Ryberg [17] for PV, this issue will only be summarized here. The key aspects are:  Independent land eligibility analyses are performed for onshore wind [18], offshore wind [16], and openfield PV [17].…”

“…Figure 1 also shows the calculated average full load hours (FLH) for the wind and PV generators within each of the E-Highway regions. These FLHs correspond to the resulting FLH from hourly wind turbine and PV park simulations over a 37 year (1980 until 2016) time frame.As the simulation schemes used to produce these generation profiles have previously been discussed by Ryberg et al[15] for onshore wind, Caglayan et al[16] for offshore wind, and finally Ryberg[17] for PV, this issue will only be summarized here. The key aspects are:  Independent land eligibility analyses are performed for onshore wind[18], offshore wind[16], and openfield PV[17].…”

“…These FLHs correspond to the resulting FLH from hourly wind turbine and PV park simulations over a 37 year (1980 until 2016) time frame.As the simulation schemes used to produce these generation profiles have previously been discussed by Ryberg et al[15] for onshore wind, Caglayan et al[16] for offshore wind, and finally Ryberg[17] for PV, this issue will only be summarized here. The key aspects are:  Independent land eligibility analyses are performed for onshore wind[18], offshore wind[16], and openfield PV[17].  Placement algorithms identify all possible turbine and park locations within the eligible zones[17].…”