The third Oregon climate assessment report : January 2017
Abstract: As per Oregon State Legislature House Bill 3543. Burning fossil fuels to run our factories, heat our homes, and drive our cars produces heat-trapping gases that unequivocally warm the planet. Effects of warming are evident on physical, biological, and human and managed systems across the globe, and here in Oregon. This report presents strengthening evidence that Oregon is already experiencing the effects of climate change.
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Cited by 9 publications
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Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) populations have been declining throughout their range and loss or deterioration of habitat has been associated with observed trends. An understanding of the relative importance of landscape characteristics in affecting mule deer distribution will allow wildlife managers that alter habitat to make predictions regarding future use by mule deer, which is likely to influence mule deer population size and recruitment. We radio‐marked 376 adult female mule deer with global positioning system‐collars from 2006–2012 in south‐central Oregon, USA, to evaluate summer habitat use. We used multiple linear regression to develop a resource utilization function (RUF) model for mule deer to relate landscape characteristics to the height of a utilization distribution estimated with a Brownian bridge movement model. We validated the predictive capacity of the RUF model with locations from an independent dataset of 95 deer that summered within our study area. Our best model describing mule deer habitat use included 5 covariates: overstory canopy cover, slope, distance to forest edge, distance to intermittent or perennial streams, and distance to dirt roads. Predicted intensity of use peaked at roughly 40% canopy cover and decreased with increasing slope and distance from forest edge. Predicted use was greater closer to streams and decreased, albeit slightly, with increasing distance from dirt roads. Model validation revealed our model predicted summer habitat use by mule deer very well. Our results provide a basis for predicting effects of future land management actions on mule deer habitat use on summer range. Forest management prescriptions that maintain canopy cover around 40% and create forest edge may benefit mule deer in south‐central Oregon and other forested ecosystems, particularly if these prescriptions are implemented on areas with gentle slopes and access to streams. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.
Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) populations have been declining throughout their range and loss or deterioration of habitat has been associated with observed trends. An understanding of the relative importance of landscape characteristics in affecting mule deer distribution will allow wildlife managers that alter habitat to make predictions regarding future use by mule deer, which is likely to influence mule deer population size and recruitment. We radio‐marked 376 adult female mule deer with global positioning system‐collars from 2006–2012 in south‐central Oregon, USA, to evaluate summer habitat use. We used multiple linear regression to develop a resource utilization function (RUF) model for mule deer to relate landscape characteristics to the height of a utilization distribution estimated with a Brownian bridge movement model. We validated the predictive capacity of the RUF model with locations from an independent dataset of 95 deer that summered within our study area. Our best model describing mule deer habitat use included 5 covariates: overstory canopy cover, slope, distance to forest edge, distance to intermittent or perennial streams, and distance to dirt roads. Predicted intensity of use peaked at roughly 40% canopy cover and decreased with increasing slope and distance from forest edge. Predicted use was greater closer to streams and decreased, albeit slightly, with increasing distance from dirt roads. Model validation revealed our model predicted summer habitat use by mule deer very well. Our results provide a basis for predicting effects of future land management actions on mule deer habitat use on summer range. Forest management prescriptions that maintain canopy cover around 40% and create forest edge may benefit mule deer in south‐central Oregon and other forested ecosystems, particularly if these prescriptions are implemented on areas with gentle slopes and access to streams. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.
Studies of habitat selection and use by wildlife, especially large herbivores, are foundational for understanding their ecology and management, especially if predictors of use represent habitat requirements that can be related to demography or fitness. Many ungulate species serve societal needs as game animals or subsistence foods, and also can affect native vegetation and agricultural crops because of their large body size, diet choices, and widespread distributions. Understanding nutritional resources and habitat use of large herbivores like elk (Cervus canadensis) can benefit their management across different land ownerships and management regimes. Distributions of elk in much of the western United States have shifted from public to private lands, leading to reduced hunting and viewing opportunities on the former and increased crop damage and other undesired effects on the latter. These shifts may be caused by increasing human disturbance (e.g., roads and traffic) and declines of early-seral vegetation, which provides abundant forage for elk and other wildlife on public lands. Managers can benefit from tools that predict how nutritional resources, other environmental characteristics, elk productivity and performance, and elk distributions respond to management actions. We present a large-scale effort to develop regional elk nutrition and habitat-use models for summer ranges spanning 11 million ha in western Oregon and Washington, USA (hereafter Westside). We chose summer because nutritional limitations on elk condition (e.g., body fat levels) and reproduction in this season are evident across much of the western United States. Our overarching hypothesis was that elk habitat use during summer is driven by a suite of interacting covariates related to energy balance: acquisition (e.g., nutritional resources, juxtaposition of cover and foraging areas), and loss (e.g., proximity to open roads, topography). We predicted that female elk consistently select areas of higher summer nutrition, resulting in better animal performance in more nutritionally rich landscapes. We also predicted that factors of human disturbance, vegetation, and topography would affect elk use of landscapes and available nutrition during summer, and specifically predicted that elk would avoid open roads and areas far from cover-forage edges because of their preference for foraging sites with secure patches of cover nearby. Our work had 2 primary objectives: 1) to develop and evaluate a nutrition model that estimates regional nutritional conditions for elk on summer ranges, using predictors that reflect elk nutritional ecology; and 2) to develop a summer habitat-use model that integrates Deceased. Rowland et al. Elk Nutrition and Habitat-Use Models 1the nutrition model predictions with other covariates to estimate relative probability of use by elk, accounting for ecological processes that drive use. To meet our objectives, we used 25 previously collected data sets on elk nutrition, performance, and distributions from 12 study areas. We demonstra...
Understanding bottom‐up, top‐down, and abiotic factors along with interactions that may influence additive or compensatory effects of predation on ungulate population growth has become increasingly important as carnivore assemblages, land management policies, and climate variability change across western North America. Recruitment and population trends of elk (Cervus canadensis) have been downward in the last 4 decades across the northern Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest, USA. In Oregon, changes in vegetation composition and land use practices occurred, cougar (Puma concolor) populations recovered from near‐extirpation, and black bear (Ursus americanus) populations increased. Our goal was to provide managers with insight into the influence of annual climatic variation, and bottom‐up and top‐down factors affecting recruitment of elk in Oregon. We conducted our research in southwestern (SW; Toketee and Steamboat) and northeastern (NE; Wenaha and Sled Springs) Oregon, which had similar predator assemblages but differed in patterns of juvenile recruitment, climate, cougar densities, and vegetative characteristics. We obtained monthly temperature and precipitation measures from Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and estimates of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for each study area to assess effects of climate and vegetation growth on elk vital rates. To evaluate the nutritional status of elk in each study area, we captured, aged, and radio‐collared adult female elk in SW (n = 69) in 2002–2005 and NE (n = 113) in 2001–2007. We repeatedly captured these elk in autumn (n = 232) and spring (n = 404) and measured ingesta‐free body fat (IFBF), mass, and pregnancy and lactation status. We fitted pregnant elk with vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in spring and captured their neonates in SW (n = 46) and NE (n = 100). We placed expandable radio‐collars on these plus an additional 110 neonates in SW and 360 neonates in NE captured by hand or net‐gunning via helicopter and estimated their age at capture, birth mass from mass at capture, and sex. We monitored their fates and documented causes of mortality until 1 year of age. We estimated density of cougars by population reconstruction of captured (n = 96) and unmarked cougars killed (n = 27) and of black bears from DNA analysis of hair collected from snares. We found evidence in lactating females of nutritional limitations on all 4 study areas where IFBFautumn was below 12%, a threshold above which there are few nutritional limitations (9.8% [SE = 0.64%, n = 17] at Toketee, 7.9% [SE = 0.78%, n = 17] at Steamboat, 7.3% [SE = 0.33%, n = 46] at Sled Springs, and 8.9% [SE = 0.51%, n = 23] at Wenaha). In spring, of females known to have been lactating the previous autumn, 48% (SE = 3.3%, n = 56) had IFBFspring <2%, a level indicating severe nutritional limitations, compared to 20% (SE = 1.7%, n = 91) of those not lactating the previous autumn. These low levels of IFBFspring of lactating females likely resulted from a carry...
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