The Time Phenomenon in Prediction Theory of Technogenic Risk of Complex Dynamic Systems

Ostreykovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, E. N.

doi:10.21685/2307-4205-2016-4-1

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…L, n, Li -із аналізу схеми виробу; Zi -розрахунок параметру потоку відмов сукупностей елементів за відомими методиками [1,2,5];…”

Section: таблиця математична модель оцінки значень показників надійно...unclassified

“…«абсолютно надійних систем», які мають коефіцієнт готовності А≥0,997 [1][2][3][4][5] (в окремих випадках, наприклад, для міжпланетних космічних апаратів, роботів для дослідження інших планет) . Крім того, особлива увага приділяється розробці програмно-керованих радіотехнічних засобів і систем, що також впливає на їхню надійність [4,6,7] .…”

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“…Нині немає не лише практичних, а й теоретичних методів розрахунку ефективності функціонування систем зі змінною структурою, яка може змінюватися випадковим чином через короткі інтервали часу . Зміна структури завжди відбувається в залежності від зміни виконуваних системою функцій [1,2] .…”

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Variable Structure Object Dependability Values Evaluation Method

Volkov¹,

Одарченко²,

Bodar³

et al. 2023

Control syst. comput.

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Introduction. Modern researches at the domain of radiotechnical devices and parts are showing that mean time between failures often is omitting during the brand new device designing process. Purpose of the development is to improve the method of the reliability values evaluation of the objects with variable structure including the different sets of elements working time at all possible usage modes as intended. The set-theoretic models of objects that are allowed to estimate power of element subsets quantitatively used in different modes of operation for the purpose of evaluation the reliability indicators of radio-electronic means depending on the structure of the object and the order of changing modes of operation. With the help of the mathematical apparatus of set theory, it has been proven that the reliability of radio-electronic devices will be maximum at the minimum power of the elements used during operation and vice versa. Methods. Evaluation method is needed to take into account vast majority of the minor aspects that were not included before during the calculation procedures: multi-mode work, multi-functioning, excess availability that leads to the object structure changing during its usage for purpose. Results. Taking the fifth-generation station for the experiment, several detail sets were chosen for installation into the device. Competence of the repair service, quality of the details, work-mode was taken into account for the certain result calculation achieving. Conclusion. Brand new, detailed method has been developed for the effectiveness of the objects with variable structure evaluation. Multimode availability could be a significant reliability improving feature at the devices with such structure. Also, evaluation of some separate parts of the device structure would be much more useful for the working period prolongation than evaluation of the device as a whole.

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Section: таблиця математична модель оцінки значень показників надійно...unclassified

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Variable Structure Object Dependability Values Evaluation Method

Volkov¹,

Одарченко²,

Bodar³

et al. 2023

Control syst. comput.

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“…Non-parametric methods are applied if it is not possible to evaluate satisfactorily the form of distribution, while the test time is equivalent to the required operating time of the equipment. Time as a factor, is possible to exclude and examine the signs of failure [15][16][17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Formulation Of the Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the Efficiency of Administrative Decision-Making when Monitoring Reliability and Safety of Oil and Gas Equipment

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Methodology of rapid assessment of reliability index was developed based on system analysis of technological parameters. Within functioning of on-line monitoring system of reliability index of industrial facility this method allows to increase efficiency of making managerial decisions on technical and preventive maintenance. The technique is based on the analysis of technological parameters of operational modes of pipeline transport facilities registered by dispatcher controls. The created technique can be used by the operating, research, design institutes and oil and gas transport enterprises when declaring industrial safety. The received mathematical models allow federal services of supervision, the independent expert organizations to predict the development of reliability in the registered block of dispatching data either in real time mode, or taking into account the dynamics of service conditions of the object.

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“…The current system of assessing the reliability, based on the statistical evaluation of reliability index does not fully meet modern requirements [9], since, by definition, involves the fact of the occurrence of failure [11,[13][14][15][16]19,20]. Operation of oil and gas companies provide preventive maintenance system with conditions to minimize any incidents, so the statistical information is unsuitable for classical reliability analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Parameters of Reliability of Technological Processes of Hydrocarbon Pipeline Transportation

Shalay

Zemenkov

et al. 2016

MATEC Web Conf.

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Abstract. On the basis of methods of system analysis and parametric reliability theory, the mathematical modeling of processes of oil and gas equipment operation in reliability monitoring was conducted according to dispatching data. To check the quality of empiric distribution coordination , an algorithm and mathematical methods of analysis are worked out in the on-line mode in a changing operating conditions. An analysis of physical cause-and-effect relations mechanism between the key factors and changing parameters of technical systems of oil and gas facilities is made, the basic types of technical distribution parameters are defined. Evaluation of the adequacy the analyzed parameters of the type of distribution is provided by using a criterion A.Kolmogorov, as the most universal, accurate and adequate to verify the distribution of continuous processes of complex multiple-technical systems. Methods of calculation are provided for supervising by independent bodies for risk assessment and safety facilities

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The Time Phenomenon in Prediction Theory of Technogenic Risk of Complex Dynamic Systems

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Variable Structure Object Dependability Values Evaluation Method

Variable Structure Object Dependability Values Evaluation Method

Improving the Efficiency of Administrative Decision-Making when Monitoring Reliability and Safety of Oil and Gas Equipment

Modeling Parameters of Reliability of Technological Processes of Hydrocarbon Pipeline Transportation

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