This paper analyzes retirement timing decisions of DC pension plan members.In this paper the optimal annuitization timing decision is incorporated into the retirement timing decision. I …rst develop a retirement decision model and generate a forward looking retirement likelihood measure from this model. This measure describes the probability that an individual will retire within the next few years. In the model, the individual obtains utility from leisure, labor income before retirement and pension bene…t after retirement. The DC pension bene…t is the income from the annuity which is bought at the optimal time. The retirement likelihood measure is then tested with the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data. From investigating the retirement decisions of the sample members in the second wave of ELSA, I conclude that the retirement likelihood measure is a good predictor of actual retirement decisions.Keywords: Retirement, Annuitization, Optimal Stopping Time JEL Classi…cation Codes: J26, G12 I thank Rik Frehen, Kai Li, Theo Nijman, Frank de Jong, Roel Mehlkopf, Bertrand Melenberg, Eytan Sheshinski, Jonathan Skinner, Bas Werker and seminar participants at Tilburg University, FMA European Meeting Doctoral Student Consortium (Prague) and Netspar Workshop in Den Haag for useful comments and discussions.y CentER, Netspar, and TILEC, Department of Finance, Tilburg University, Warandelaan 2, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE, Tilburg, the Netherlands. Email: z.shi@uvt.nl.
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I IntroductionIn recent years, there has been a signi…cant shift from De…ned Bene…t (DB) to De…ned Contribution (DC) pension plans in a number of countries, including the U.S., the U.K. and Australia. In the U.S., the number of DB plans has declined sharply in recent years, from 112,208 in 1985112,208 in to about 29,600 in 2004112,208 in (FDIC 2006. In the U.K., DC plans started widely about two decades ago. At 2002, approximately a third of pension schemes in the U.K. are DC and the trend away from DB funds is expected to accelerate in coming years (Ross and Wills 2002). This shift makes it increasingly interesting to understand determinants of DC pension plan participants'retirement decisions.Retirement decisions of individuals with DC plans are in ‡uenced jointly by many factors, for example, expected and realized investment returns, the individuals'risk aversion, the mortality rate, the subjective valuation of leisure, the labor income and its expected growth rate. DC pension plans generally provide bene…t in the form of a lump-sum payment. In some countries, for example, the U.S., there are no obligations to annuitize DC wealth, while in others, for example, the U.K., there are obligations to do so. The seminal paper of Yaari (1965) argues that, in the absence of bequest motive, all retirement wealth should be annuitized. There are two reasons supporting this view. One is that without annuitization there is a risk that the retirees might consume too much so that they will exhaust their retirement resource before they die. The other on...