The Transnational Tilt of the Treadmill and the Role of Trade Openness on Carbon Emissions: A Comparative International Study, 1965–2010

Abstract

There are various schools of thought regarding the relationship between the environment and economy. Ecological modernization argues that the harmful effects of economic growth and development on the environment decline through time, whereas the treadmill of production and ecologically unequal exchange postulate different perspectives. This study relies on World Bank and World Resources Institute data for the period of 1965–2010. Time‐series cross‐sectional Prais‐Winsten (PW) regression models with panel‐corrected standard errors (PCSE) are employed to examine whether economic growth and trade openness intensified or decoupled in relation to three measures of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during this period. The findings of this study indicate that there has been a “tilt” in the treadmill of production—that is, the most environmentally degrading production processes have moved to less developed countries. Furthermore, integration into the world economy has been associated with an intensification in CO2 emissions for less developed countries. Surprisingly, however, this phenomenon does not seem to be driven by exports sent to high‐income nations, suggesting that there are mechanisms embodied within the global organization of production that require further exploration.

Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change

“…The analysis of emissions per unit of GDP suggests a slight decoupling for the sample of developed nations, while the findings for the sample of developing countries are inconclusive. In a more recent longitudinal study that extends the temporal scope of the analysis to 2010, Thombs () replicates the findings of Jorgenson and Clark () across all three measures of emissions. Overall, this body of research on decoupling provides mixed support for ecological modernization theory and treadmill of production theory, and suggests that both frameworks could benefit from further consideration of how the global organization of production and the structure of international trade influence the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development.…”

“…One of the major drivers of climate change is economic growth, which includes long‐term and near‐term factors that influence the timing and extent of the driver's impact. Sociological research has employed longitudinal modeling techniques and statistical interactions to assess the potentially changing effect of economic development on national‐level carbon emissions (Jorgenson & Clark, ; Knight & Schor, ; Longhofer & Jorgenson, ; Thombs, ). This body of research provides a sociological approach to analyses of a potential decoupling of gross domestic product (GDP) and emissions (OECD, ), and commonly focuses on testing hypotheses derived from social theories, particularly ecological modernization theory and treadmill of production theory.…”

Social Science Perspectives on Drivers of and Responses to Global Climate Change

“…The analysis of emissions per unit of GDP suggest a slight decoupling for the sample of developed nations, while the findings for the sample of developing countries are inconclusive. In a more recent longitudinal study that extends the temporal scope of the analysis to 2010, Thombs (2018a) replicates the findings of Jorgenson and Clark (2012) across all three measures of emissions. Overall, this body of research on decoupling provides mixed support for ecological modernization theory and treadmill of production theory, and suggests that both frameworks could benefit from further consideration of how the global organization of production and the structure of international trade influence the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development.…”

“…Sociological research has employed longitudinal modeling techniques and statistical interactions to assess the potentially changing effect of economic development on national-level carbon emissions Knight and Schor 2014;Longhofer and Jorgenson 2017;Thombs 2018a). This body of research provides a sociological approach to analyses of a potential decoupling of GDP and emissions (OECD 2002), and commonly focuses on testing hypotheses derived from social theories, particularly ecological modernization theory and treadmill of production theory.…”

Homicide Rates and the Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization: A Longitudinal, Cross-National Analysis

“…While the analysis in our study focuses on homicide rates, we reiterate that quantitative sociologists in other areas use the same cross-national data sets in their analyses [3]. On that note, given the growing interest in the link between crime and sustainable development [4,8], we emphasize the relevance of our study for cross-national sustainability scholarship [3,[30][31][32][33]. Like cross-national homicide studies, much of the quantitative environmental scholarship, with few exceptions [34,35], also handles missing values by way of listwise deletion, which we discuss in greater detail below.…”