The turning winds with height thermal advection rainfall diagnostic: why does it work in the tropics?

Tory, Kevin J.

doi:10.22499/2.6403.005

Cited by 15 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…We found in each case that that low-to-mid-level winds turned anti-cyclonically with height in association with extreme rainfall. As noted in Section 3, this wind structure is associated with warm air advection at the 700 hPa level, i.e., with winds blowing from warmer to cooler regions (Tory 2014).…”

Section: A Summary Of Winds Associated With Additional Major Floods Smentioning

confidence: 75%

“…In a thermodynamically favorable environment (warm, moist lower troposphere) this synoptic scale lifting mechanism (under QG balance) leads to wide-spread, persistent deep convection, and associated extreme rain. Tory's (2014) theory indicates that this relationship is true for gradient flow, and is independent of latitude. We therefore expect the relationship to hold throughout our study region ( Figure 1, right panel).…”

Section: Links Between Wind and Rainfall At Brisbanementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Goff and Hanson (2012) found this to be the case in the middle latitudes of the United States. Previous studies (Callaghan and Tory 2014, Tory 2014, Bonell and Callaghan 2008) examined winds associated with extreme rainfall in tropical cyclones and other weather systems in the tropics. They found, in the cases they examined, that extreme rainfall was associated with winds turning anti-cyclonically with height, between low levels and 500 hPa.…”

Section: Mechanisms Producing the Turning Wind Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…They found, in the cases they examined, that extreme rainfall was associated with winds turning anti-cyclonically with height, between low levels and 500 hPa. Theoretical arguments (Tory 2014) suggest, assuming gradient wind balance, that isentropic uplift is likely to be associated with winds that turn anti-cyclonically with height in most heavy rain-bearing systems, including the tropics and subtropics. Here we will examine winds triggering extreme rainfall over our study region to determine whether or not these conclusions have broader applicability than the above studies, as anticipated from theory (Tory 2014).…”

Section: Mechanisms Producing the Turning Wind Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

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A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

Callaghan¹,

Power²

2017

JSHESS

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Here we examine winds associated with extreme rainfall and major flooding in coastal catchments and more broadly over southeastern Australia. Both radiosonde and re-analysis data are examined. In every case (i) atmospheric moisture content is high and (ii) the low-level winds are onshore, and in almost every case (iii) the wind-direction turns anti-cyclonically with increasing height up to 500 hPa. Data from Brisbane extending back more than 50 years is consistent with this behavior: winds turn anti-cyclonically with increasing height on days with heavy rainfall, whereas winds turn cyclonically with increasing height on days with light or no rainfall. In the coastal zone, extreme rainfall rarely occurs without (i), (ii) and (iii). In eastern Australia beyond the coastal zone, conditions (i) and (iii) are also associated with extreme rainfall. We found very few cases where such conditions were not associated with extreme rainfall in this broader region. This study extends previous work by showing that the link between turning winds and rainfall exists in both the tropics and subtropics, and the link applies in cases of extreme rainfall and associated major flooding.

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Section: A Summary Of Winds Associated With Additional Major Floods Smentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Links Between Wind and Rainfall At Brisbanementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mechanisms Producing the Turning Wind Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mechanisms Producing the Turning Wind Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

Callaghan¹,

Power²

2017

JSHESS

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“…In order to have a better understanding of the relationship between maximum winds and rainfall, mid-level winds and hourly rainfall are compared to a thermal advection rainfall diagnostic for members 11, 17 and 22 ( Figure 14 and Figure 15). The diagnostic is based on the relationship between thermal advection and geostrophic winds turning with height (e.g., Holton 2004) which also applies for gradient winds that turn with height (Tory 2014). It has been used for decades by the Australian forecasting community in the prediction of subtropical and tropical heavy rainfall and can be used successfully for most large scale and mesoscale systems, including ECLs.…”

Section: Figure 11mentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution ensemble prediction of the Australian East Coast Low of April 2015

Zovko-Rajak¹,

Tory²,

Fawcett³

et al. 2018

JSHESS

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An analysis of the East Coast Low (ECL) that affected the eastern coast of Australia between 20 and 23 April 2015 is presented, to get a better understanding of the dynamics of the storm as well as its predictability. For this, an ensemble consisting of 24 high-resolution simulations conducted using the ACCESS model is used. The simulated ensemble-mean forecast rainfall is in good agreement with the observed rainfall and identifies Dungog as the area of highest risk of extreme rainfall. A subset of ensemble members shows very little rain in the Dungog area; instead the high rainfall is located further south or east, indicating that a larger part of the coast was at some risk of significant rain. Ensemble member comparisons show that the strongest surface winds and highest rainfall occur to the south of the main surface low, while the strengthening of an upper-troposphere northwesterly jet and the associated cutoff low occur west of the surface low. However, small synopticscale differences between members produce large differences in the location and strength of nearsurface extreme winds and highest rainfall, which develop in response to the same dynamic processes in each member. The analysis also showed that the thermal advection rainfall diagnostic is applicable to high-resolution data and could be used for analysing ECL development.

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Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun (2014)

Davidson

Duan

et al. 2020

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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The turning winds with height thermal advection rainfall diagnostic: why does it work in the tropics?

Cited by 15 publications

References 9 publications

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

High-resolution ensemble prediction of the Australian East Coast Low of April 2015

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun (2014)

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