The Twin Chessboards of US-China Rivalry: Impact on the Geostrategic Supply and Demand in Post-Pandemic Asia

Abstract

This essay offers a small state perspective on US-China rivalry in the post-COVID-19 era. After tracing the emergence of the "twin chessboards" of big power rivalry, namely, high and low politics competitions, the essay assesses the impact of these competitions on the post-pandemic Asian order, with a focus on Southeast Asia. I argue that while US-China competition has been rising rapidly in high politics (that is, in the military field), the increasing importance of low politics-infrastructure and connectivity development, technology, trade, finance, public health, and other functional areas-is shaping the prospects, pace, and patterns of the onset of Cold War 2.0. The intensified US-China animosity across the twin chessboards is widening the scope of the competition, increasing the number of players, and mounting pressure on all smaller states. Arguably, however, it is also providing these smaller states with more maneuvering space. These developments reshape geostrategic supply and demand in Southeast Asia. Accordingly, the smaller states are developing additional layers of partnerships with actors near and far, thereby broadening their hedging options in an increasingly uncertain and high-stake environment.

Hedging via Institutions: ASEAN-led Multilateralism in the Age of the Indo-Pacific

“…In fact, under the current conditions of ultra-uncertainty, contradictions are a necessity required to serve such risk-mitigating purposes as avoiding being entrapped into others' possible conflict, avoiding being abandoned by allies or partners, and, perhaps most important, avoiding prematurely creating or edging closer to a self-fulfilling prophecy (exclusive alliance and excessive armament directly targeted at one power risks turning a potential security problem into an immediate threat). When the situation is highly uncertain and the reality is messy (e.g., each of the competing powers presents both problems and solutions to all smaller states), clear-cut consistency (e.g., completely aligning with one power against another) is rigid and unrealistic at best, and dangerously counter-productive at worst (Kuik 2021a;2021b). Indeed, when structural circumstances are less than straightforward and domestic challenges more pressing, prudent contradictory actions on an inclusive, impartial basis are imperative.…”

“…To begin, the antagonism between the US and China is becoming more open, more intense, and more confrontational (Christensen 2020;Goldstein 2020;Shambaugh 2020;Lampton 2021;Scobell 2021;Wang 2021). The actionreaction between the two contesting powers across the military and non-military chessboards, coupled with the broadening involvements of second-tier powers in and out of Asia, have intensified big power tensions and their smaller-state courtships in the Indo-Pacific region (Kuik 2021b;2022a;2022b).…”

Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective

“…Looking ahead, the imperative of realpolitik means the smaller states’ alignment positions and global order in the future will be determined not only on the “high-politics” in the military security realms, but also “low-politics” in the non-military domains. These are the twin chessboards of Asian geopolitics in this century (Kuik 2021a ). Thus far, the United States and China both have mixed scores on the two chessboards.…”