The twin deficits and economic growth in selected African countries

Aragaw, Abebe Derbie

doi:10.17261/pressacademia.2021.1407

Pressacademia

2021

DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2021.1407

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The twin deficits and economic growth in selected African countries

Abebe Derbie Aragaw¹

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2024

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Threshold and Spatial Effects of Fiscal Policy on Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Economic Community of West African States

Diendere,

Eggoh

2024

Journal of African Economies

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This research analyses the threshold effects of fiscal policy on business cycle synchronisation in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The main contribution is the analysis of the effects of respecting versus not respecting deficit and debt thresholds on the synchronisation of business cycles through the creation of binary variables. The study covers the period 1990–2020 and fourteen ECOWAS countries. The results show that the optimal pro-growth thresholds for the budget deficit and debt are 5.559% and 45.61% of GDP, respectively. Furthermore, spatial analysis reveals significant positive spatial spillover effects of respecting these thresholds on synchronising business cycles within ECOWAS. The current convergence criterion of −3% for the budget balance is favourable for growth and business cycle convergence. In addition, the current debt convergence criterion of 70% of GDP could be adjusted. Our results suggest the need to strengthen revenue mobilisation, harmonise taxation and improve the monitoring of fiscal standards.

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Threshold and Spatial Effects of Fiscal Policy on Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Economic Community of West African States

Diendere,

Eggoh

2024

Journal of African Economies

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İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: 169 Ülke Verileri ile Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

Çınar,

Palyoş Konya

2024

Politik Ekonomik Kuram

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İkiz açıklar, genel olarak ekonomide, bütçe açığı ile cari işlemler açığının bir arada yer aldığını ve bu iki değişkenin birbirini etkilediklerini ileri süren bir hipotezdir. Bu çalışmada da ikiz açıklar hipotezi 2000-2022 dönemi için verilerine ulaşılabilen 169 ülke çerçevesinde yeniden ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada statik ve dinamik panel veri analizleri bir arada kullanılmıştır. Rassal Etkiler Modelinin uygun model olduğu statik panel veri modellerinde cari açık ve bütçe açıkları arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki bulunmuştur. Panel VAR ve Panel Nedensellik analizlerinin yapıldığı dinamik panel veri yaklaşımında da statik panel veri analizi ile uyumlu sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Etki-tepki fonksiyonu cari açık şoklarının bütçe açıkları üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Özelliklede, bütçe açıklarında meydana gelen şokların cari açıklar üzerindeki etkisi elde edilen bulgular arasındadır. Son olarak panel nedensellik sonuçları iki değişken arasında çift yönlü nedensel bir ilişkinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sebeple, çalışma sonuçları, ilgili literatür ile genel olarak uyumlu sonuçlar üretmiş ve Keynesyen görüşün geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir.

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The twin deficits and economic growth in selected African countries

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Threshold and Spatial Effects of Fiscal Policy on Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Economic Community of West African States

Threshold and Spatial Effects of Fiscal Policy on Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Economic Community of West African States

İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: 169 Ülke Verileri ile Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

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