The two‐way interaction between population aging and industrial transformation

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the labourforce age structure and industry composition in a multiregion and multi-sector framework. Relying on a panel dataset of Chinese provinces, the simultaneous equations model reveals two-way influences between age and industrial structures. Population aging induces a (an) reduced (increased) secondary-sector (tertiary-sector) employment share. The industrial structure then changes the age structure of the local labour force via the migrations of young workers as non-agricultural sectors expand. With an improved Leslie model, we predict a province-level population aging and industry structure trend. Accordingly, municipalities, developed coastal provinces and the three northeastern provinces face greater pressure from population aging and a rapid structural, industrial transformation. Further considerations of the 'two-child policy' via simulation results show that relaxed birth restrictions could slow population aging in some but not all these provinces.

Industrial structure upgrading, population aging and migration: An empirical study based on Chinese provincial panel data

“…The seventh national census in 2020 showed that the proportion of the elderly population had reached 18.7%, and this aging population structure will impact the industry development from both the supply and demand sides. The labor force’s quality and absolute quantity will decrease due to population aging, and the demand structure and subject will adjust also [ 6 – 8 ]. The traditional labor-intensive industry growth model has become unsustainable, and labor costs have increased rapidly, compressing the industry’s development potential [ 9 ].…”

Development of a Multi-sector Bounded-Neighbourhood Model with intersectoral commodity-money interactions

“…Как показали исследования [1 -4], сегрегация экономически активного населения, существенно влияет на темпы ассимиляции внешних агентов и их способность занимать высокотехнологичные рабочие места, обеспечивая более высокие темпы экономического роста. В настоящее время, проблемам моделирования структуры занятости и ее влияния на социально-экономическую систему уделяется значительное внимание [8,13,19,21], однако ограничения, обусловленные необходимостью обеспечения устойчивых межотраслевых взаимодействий, практически не принимаются во внимание.…”