The UK summer heatwave of 2018 and public concern over energy security

Larcom, Shaun; She, Po-Wen; Gevelt, Terry van

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0460-6

Cited by 68 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…That same meta-analysis found that perceived self-capacity had higher effects on adaptation behaviors than experience. Larcom (2019) found that experience with a heatwave amongst the general population did not elicit adaptation behaviors in the United Kingdom, but did elevate concern [ 41 ]. Similarly, Albright and Crow (2019) found that direct flooding experience was not a predictor of concern for climate change amongst Colorado, United States, residents [ 42 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

Rodríguez-Cruz

Niles

2021

PLoS ONE

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Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change’s impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers’ adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers’ showed a broad awareness of climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

Rodríguez-Cruz

Niles

2021

PLoS ONE

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“…A changing climate has led to increases in both mean and extreme temperatures globally since the 1950s, driven largely by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC, 2014). Research on heat waves (warm temperature extremes) is of central importance, because they exert disproportionate impacts on societies and ecosystems compared to mean climate (e.g., Larcom et al, 2019; Mora et al, 2017; Yuan et al, 2016). More intense, frequent, and longer‐lasting heat waves are projected in a future warmer climate (Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004; Russo et al, 2014), consistent with the trend of the past decades in observations (Alexander et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Global and Regional Characteristics of Heat Stress Waves in the 21st Century

Chen

Liu

et al. 2020

Earth's Future

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Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a combined measure of temperature and humidity effects on thermal comfort, is used to define heat stress waves (HSWs). While emerging research has raised concerns on future changes in heat stress, for the first time, this study examines spatiotemporal changes in multiple HSW characteristics (intensity, duration, frequency, and cumulative mean intensity) in the 21st century under three emissions scenarios. It is the sustained nature of HSWs that impose more adverse impacts than extreme heat on a single day. HSWs are expected to be more intense, persistent, frequent, and influential due to anthropogenic influence. Models project the largest increases in multiple HSW characteristics will occur over the tropics and subtropics. The exception is maximum intensity, which displays a relative uniform increase over most global land areas. Analysis of regional population exposure to HSWs under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios emphasizes the importance of aggressive mitigation to minimize the potential impacts of HSWs. We further investigate how different regional HSW characteristics are projected to change relative to increasing global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our results confirm the varying rates and different trajectories at which regional HSWs change, independent of forcing pathway, strongly related to GMST. On both globally aggregated and regional scales, the maximum intensity and GMST are highly linearly associated, with an approximately 1:1 increase. However, the other three HSW characteristics are projected to change at a nonlinear rate per degree of GMST increase in general and display large regional variation in the rates of their changes. Plain Language Summary Besides air temperature, air humidity is another important factor in determining the impact of heat waves on humans. High humidity will reduce the efficiency of evaporative cooling and, when combined with high temperature, could pose a serious threat to human health or even life safety. Heat stress indices, taking into account both temperature and humidity effects, are considered to be better indicators of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress on human health. We here employ a widely used heat stress index, wet bulb globe temperature, to define heat waves, namely, heat stress waves (HSWs). Heat waves can be considered through a number of characteristics, and it is their distinctive characteristics that result in the vast array of adverse impacts. This also applies to HSWs. Our results show that more intense, longer-lasting, frequent, and influential HSWs are anticipated during the 21st century, and anthropogenic warming substantially increases the occurrence of HSWs. Except intensity, tropical regions will generally witness the largest increases in multiple HSW characteristics and the number of people that may be exposed to HSWs. Changes in HSW characteristics are confirmed not to depend on whether a particular warming is reached sooner or later; they are strongly related to global mean sur...

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“…Nevertheless, a recent meta-analysis performed by van Valkengoed and colleagues (2019) found that experience had small-to-moderate effects on climate change adaptation. Moreover, Larcom (2019) found that experience with a heatwave amongst the general population did not elicit adaptation behaviors in the United Kingdom, but did elevate concern [43]. Similarly, Albright and Crow (2019) found that direct flooding experience was not a predictor of concern for climate change amongst Colorado, United States, residents [44].…”

Section: Research On the Psychological Distance Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Puerto Rican Farmers' Psychological Awareness of Climate Change, and Adaptation Perceptions after Hurricane Maria

Rodríguez-Cruz¹,

Niles²

2020

Preprint

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Strengthening farmers’ adaptive capacity is important for decreasing their vulnerability to natural hazards in this changing climate, and for safeguarding local food systems. One key step in strengthening adaptive capacity is understanding the relationship between farmers’ experience with natural hazards and their perceptions of climate change, and its role in farmers’ decision making around climate change adaptation. Here we explore Puerto Rican farmers’ psychological distance of climate change after experiencing category 4 Hurricane Maria, in order to intersect the roles of experience, perceptions, and motivation for farmers’ decision-making around climate change adaptation. Farmers throughout Puerto Rico were surveyed by Extension Services’ agents (n = 405, 87% response rate) in 2018, eight months after Hurricane Maria. A structural equation model was used to evaluate how reported experience with past events and direct damages by Hurricane Maria related to farmers’ psychological distance of climate change, and the association of these variables to farmers’ motivation to adapt to climate change. We found that farmers psychological distance of climate change is both near and far, since they show a broad awareness to climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, geographical, and social). Reported experience and direct damages by the hurricane were not linked to their psychological distance of climate change, and these did not relate to their motivation to adapt. These results suggest that using extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action may no longer be relevant, especially in a context where there is a high level of climate change belief and continued threat of extreme events. Thus, broadening analysis beyond individual perceptions as drivers of climate adaptation to how structural dynamics are linked to adaptive capacity could provide better understanding. This study is among the first to study the role of climate change experience and perceptions on farmers’ climate change adaption after an extreme weather event in an island-archipelago setting.

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The UK summer heatwave of 2018 and public concern over energy security

Cited by 68 publications

References 24 publications

Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

Changes in Global and Regional Characteristics of Heat Stress Waves in the 21st Century

Puerto Rican Farmers' Psychological Awareness of Climate Change, and Adaptation Perceptions after Hurricane Maria

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