The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis and the Politics of Public Opinion: Evidence from Hungary

Abstract

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment in European politics. An immediate consequence of the invasion was a massive influx of refugees into Central Europe, a region in which immigration has proven highly contentious and politically salient over the past thirty years. We study public opinion towards refugees in Hungary, a highly exclusionary political environment in which anti-migrant and anti-refugee sentiments are commonly invoked by the ruling government. Combining historical public opinion data from the past decade with original survey data collected in April 2022, we demonstrate that the Ukrainian refugee crisis was accompanied by a large increase in tolerance for refugees, reversing what had previously been one of the most anti-refugee public opinion environments in Europe. To explain this reversal, we use a series of survey experiments to investigate how conflict proximity and racial, religious, and national identity (three manifestations of what we term civilizational characteristics) shape openness to refugees. We find that the distinguishing feature of the 2022 refugee crisis was that refugees were mostly white European Christians driven from their home country by conflict. We discuss the implications of our argument for Hungary, for European politics in times of crisis, and for the politics of public opinion in competitive authoritarian regimes.

The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis and the Politics of Public Opinion: Evidence from Hungary

“…To study the evolution of Hungarian public opinion toward refugees over the past decade, we conducted two original surveys in April 2022 (just as refugees began flowing into Hungary) and in November 2022 (Pepinsky, Reiff, and Szabó 2024). We partnered with the Hungarian survey firm TÁRKI, one of the most well-established polling firms in Hungary.…”

„Ukrán migráns, migráns migráns.” A migrációval kapcsolatos attitűdök változása eltérő médiadiskurzusok fényében

“…A Fideszkormány a korábbi politikájával ellentétesen segítőként lépett fel az Ukrajnából érkezett menekültek ügyében, így különösen érdekes kérdés lehet az, hogy mindezt miként értékelték a magyar választók 2022 tavaszán. Ahogyan arra több empirikus kutatás rámutatott, a migrációs attitűdökben 2022 során komoly változás volt tapasztalható a származási országok tekintetében (Pepinsky et al 2022, Moise et al 2024.…”

Ukrainian Refugee Crisis under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Influences, Reflections and Suggestions on Europe

“…In the early period of the war, Central European countries' accommodation policies for Ukrainian refugees were full of racism and religious identity. Taking Hungary as an example, Prime Minister Viktor Orban proposed to regard the wave of immigrants from outside Europe as "part of the great European population replacement plan" and "regard Ukrainian people as basic human beings", which is "Christian instinct" [3]. It is not difficult to see from these slogans that a large part of Hungary actively provides humanitarian aid to Ukrainian refugees because of the identity of Ukrainian refugees as "European white Christians", which aligns with the Hungarian people's preference for foreign immigration.…”