The uncertainties of synthetic unit hydrographs applied for basins with different runoff generation processes

Abstract

Synthetic unit hydrographs (SUH) are useful tools for the estimation of maximum flows in basins lacking historical records of measurements. However, these methods have many uncertainties and do not always produce results consistent with reality. This study comparatively analyzed the uncertainty of the application of the Snyder, SCS, and Clark HUS methods, widely used, in relation to the observed hydrographs, in the Pequeno River and the Espingarda River basins, located in the State of Paraná, considered small from the point of view of the drainage area. The simulation was performed using the HEC-HMS 4.2.1 software considering a combination of parameters that produced the higher and lower peak flow, respectively named as conservative and bold approaches. It was verified that the SUH methods, in general, overestimated the peak flows for both basins under study. In addition, the results obtained showed that SUH are fundamentally conservative models so that a bold approach in estimating the parameters input leads to results with smaller errors in simulated peak flows. Even running the SUH with the real excess rainfall as input there is an overestimation of the peak flow. SCS SUH produced the highest peak flows and consequently the largest errors while Snyder’s SUH produced the smallest errors. The magnitude of the overestimation of the peak flow for the Pequeno River was up to 60 folds. Its geology features suggest a Dunnian runoff generation process, which explains the larger errors.