The Uneven Influence of Climate Trends and Agricultural Policies on Maize Production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Márdero, Sofía; Schmook, Birgit; López‐Martínez, Jorge Omar; Cicero, Lizette; Radel, Claudia; Christman, Zachary

doi:10.3390/land7030080

Cited by 26 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The Yucatec Maya recounting of the dry spell and its timing after the onset of the rainy season and before the second rainfall maximum is aptly described by the meteorological data, but only when it is expressed as daily rainfall (see Figure 2). Although the literature on precipitation patterns in the Yucatan Peninsula has largely focused on annual or monthly estimates (Márdero et al, 2014;Márdero et al, 2018), we find that precipitation summarized at these course-grained scales conceal critical seasonal patterns. Average annual rainfall is not a useful predictor of good and bad harvest years.…”

Section: Scaling Climate Data To Human Behaviormentioning

confidence: 59%

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers

Kramer

Hackman

2020

American J Hum Biol

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Objectives: Human responses to climate variation have a rich anthropological history. However, much less is known about how people living in small-scale societies perceive climate change, and what climate data are useful in predicting food production at a scale that affects daily lives. Methods: We use longitudinal ethnographic interviews and economic data to first ask what aspects of climate variation affect the agricultural cycle and food production for Yucatec Maya farmers. Sixty years of high-resolution meteorological data and harvest assessments are then used to detect the scale at which climate data predict good and bad crop yields, and to analyze long-term changes in climate variables critical to food production.Results: We find that (a) only local, daily precipitation closely fits the climate pattern described by farmers. Other temporal (annual and monthly) scales miss key information about what farmers find important to successful harvests; (b) at both community-and municipal-levels, heavy late-season rains associated with tropical storms have the greatest negative impact on crop yields; and (c) in contrast to long-term patterns from regional and state data, local measures show an increase in rainfall during the late growing season, indicating that fine-grained data are needed to make accurate inferences about climate trends. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance to define climate variables at scales appropriate to human behavior. Course-grained annual, monthly, national, and state-level data tell us little about climate attributes pertinent to farmers and food production. However, high-resolution daily, local precipitation data do capture how climate variation shapes food production. | INTRODUCTIONHumans have been adapting to climate change since they can be identified in the archeological record, and have a broad array of strategies to manage seasonal and annual fluctuations in resource production. Behavioral responses to inconsistences in food availability are well-established in the anthropological and archeological literature as effective in buffering against food shortage under many circumstances. These responses are generally summarized as resource diversification, mobility, storage, and exchange through sharing and trade (Halstead & O'Shea, 1989

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Section: Scaling Climate Data To Human Behaviormentioning

confidence: 59%

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers

Kramer

Hackman

2020

American J Hum Biol

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“…Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extra tropical rain, or tropical cyclones, fueled by increased moisture, may produce more intense precipitation events (Trenberth 2011). Temperatures in the Yucatan Peninsula are becoming more extreme, with higher temperatures events and for longer periods (Orellana et al 2009;Mardero et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Orellana et al (2009) produced regional climate projections for the entire Peninsula, complementing the IPCC (2007,2013) projections that this area will increasingly suffer from both extreme droughts and more extreme events, such as hurricanes, such as category-5 Dean in 2007 (Gurri-Garcia and Vallejo-Nieto 2007;Rogan et al 2011). Further, the integration of farmers' empirical knowledge and quantitative assessments of impacts on subsistence agriculture suggest that patterns of rainfall are changing in timing and distribution (Mardero et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico

Márdero

Schmook

Christman

et al. 2019

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.

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“…In all cases, however, small scale, rainfed subsistence agriculture by predominantly indigenous farmers remains important, with agricultural production below the national average in most sectors (Gobierno del Estado de Yucatán 2013a; Mardero et al 2015). Traditional milpa cultivation (shifting cultivation of maize, beans and squashes) remains central to the rural economy and identity in many areas and has been under pressure from a range of changes, including climate change (Mardero et al 2018). Small-scale fisheries dominate the economies of many coastal settlements, particularly in YUC (Red de Género y Medio Ambiente 2010).…”

Section: Study Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community perception, adaptation and resilience to extreme weather in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

et al. 2020

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Perceptions of climate change, the impacts of and responses to climatic variability and extreme weather are explored in three communities in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, in relation to livelihood resilience. These communities provide examples of the most common livelihood strategies across the region: small-scale fisheries (San Felipe) and semi-subsistence small-holder farming (Tzucacab and Calakmul). Although the perception that annual rainfall is reducing is not supported by instrumental records, changes in the timing of vital summer rainfall and an intensification of the mid-summer drought (canicula) are confirmed. The impact of both droughts and hurricanes on livelihoods and crop yields was reported across all communities, although the severity varied. Changes in traditional milpa cultivation were seen to be driven by less reliable rainfall but also by changes in Mexico's agricultural and wider economic policies. Diversification was a common adaptation response across all communities and respondents, resulting in profound changes in livelihood strategies. Government attempts to reduce vulnerability were found to lack continuity, be hard to access and too orientated toward commercial scale producers. Population growth, higher temperatures and reduced summer rainfall will increase the pressures on communities reliant on small-scale farming and fishing, and a more nuanced understanding of both impacts and adaptations is required for improved livelihood resilience. Greater recognition of such local-scale adaptation strategies should underpin the developing Mexican National Adaptation Policy and provide a template for approaches internationally as adaptation becomes an increasingly important part of the global strategy to cope with climate change.

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The Uneven Influence of Climate Trends and Agricultural Policies on Maize Production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Cited by 26 publications

References 45 publications

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers

Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico

Community perception, adaptation and resilience to extreme weather in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

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