The Universal Plausibility Metric (UPM) & Principle (UPP)

Abstract

BackgroundMere possibility is not an adequate basis for asserting scientific plausibility. A precisely defined universal bound is needed beyond which the assertion of plausibility, particularly in life-origin models, can be considered operationally falsified. But can something so seemingly relative and subjective as plausibility ever be quantified? Amazingly, the answer is, "Yes." A method of objectively measuring the plausibility of any chance hypothesis (The Universal Plausibility Metric [UPM]) is presented. A numerical inequality is also provided whereby any chance hypothesis can be definitively falsified when its UPM metric of ξ is < 1 (The Universal Plausibility Principle [UPP]). Both UPM and UPP pre-exist and are independent of any experimental design and data set.ConclusionNo low-probability hypothetical plausibility assertion should survive peer-review without subjection to the UPP inequality standard of formal falsification (ξ < 1).

Computational Evolution Experiments Reveal a Net Loss of Genetic Information Despite Selection

“…For proteins about 100 amino acids long, there are 20 100 = 10 130 possible sequences, yet only about 1 in 10 74 [75] to 1 in 10 63 [76] are capable of forming functional structures, and most enzymes in an organism such as E. coli are over 300 amino acids long [77]. By comparison, it has been estimated that only 10 120 to 10 140 quantum particle interactions can have occurred in the entire universe since the Big Bang [78,79], and the probabilistic resources relevant to chemical reactions on Earth allow only about 10 70 events [80]. As only a minute fraction of these events were amino acid interactions exploring protein space, it is clear that Earth has insufficient probabilistic resources for generating even one functional protein sequence by chance [77].…”

Reader Comments

“…But modern geochemists doubt that a "primordial soup" existed. He made the mistake that origin-of-life researcher David Abel warned against: "Mere possibility is not an adequate basis for asserting scientifi c plausibility," and "just because a hypothesis is possible should not grant that hypothesis scientifi c respectability" (5). In this case, the odds of producing a self-replicating RNA molecule go beyond the available probabilistic resources.…”

Is Life Unique?

“…Non-trivial vs. trivial, of course, traverses a gray-scale of transition rather than being a black/white dichotomy. The issue of triviality cannot be resolved by appealing to statistical prohibitiveness or even to the Universal Plausibility Metric (UPM) and Universal Plausibility Principle (UPP) [ 175 , 176 ]. It is more a matter of formal organizational extent that currently cannot be quantified.…”

“…The Universal Plausibility Metric [ 175 , 176 ] calculated for random generation of even a segment of the Mycoplasma genome consistently yields ξ values of <1. Given these measurements, The Universal Plausibility Principle [ 175 , 176 ] provides definitive scientific falsification of the chance hypothesis [ 140 , 177 ] that the genome of Mycoplasma was generated by duplication plus random variation. Even with a generation time of 20 minutes, the mutation rate, coupled with the low percentage of potentially beneficial mutations, does not provide sufficient opportunity for random variation of duplications to have prescribed such sophisticated genetic and genomic instructions.…”